Telstar 0-5 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Telstar at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Telstar vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Telstar and PEC Zwolle meet at BUKO Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Friday 12 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Telstar (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Telstar have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Telstar's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at BUKO Stadion this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
PEC Zwolle's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. PEC Zwolle have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Telstar against 1.00 for PEC Zwolle. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Telstar — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
PEC Zwolle — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 66% versus PEC Zwolle 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 60% | PEC Zwolle 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 1.65 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 0.862 / defence 1.139 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.666 / away 1.287. Data: 39 Telstar games / 1 PEC Zwolle games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Telstar 47% | Draw 24% | PEC Zwolle 29%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | PEC Zwolle 3.45. Telstar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Telstar as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Telstar if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Telstar 50% | PEC Zwolle 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: BUKO Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 47% | Draw 24% | PEC Zwolle 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Telstar 1.65 / PEC Zwolle 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 0.862 / def 1.139 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.666 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Telstar (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.25
PEC Zwolle xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Telstar vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 August 2022 at BUKO Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs PEC Zwolle?
Telstar 0 - 5 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Telstar vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at BUKO Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Telstar vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 47% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Telstar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Telstar and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and PEC Zwolle?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Telstar and PEC Zwolle in?
Telstar (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Telstar's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against PEC Zwolle's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (0.85x) against Telstar's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
The sample (39/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Telstar Win
47%
2.13
24%
4.13
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Telstar xG
Total xG
2.90
1.25
PEC Zwolle xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
6%
18.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.3 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Telstar and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Telstar and 1.25 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Telstar's recent record stands at 8W 10D 17L from 35 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Telstar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PEC Zwolle, meanwhile, have gone 8W 6D 21L across 35 games — 0.86 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Telstar against 0.86 for PEC Zwolle. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Telstar have managed 4W 4D 9L from 17 games — 0.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PEC Zwolle's away record stands at 4W 1D 12L across 17 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Telstar are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 0.80 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Telstar have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Early Season
PEC Zwolle
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 8W 10D 17L in their last 35 games (0.97 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 8W 6D 21L in their last 35 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Telstar's home record (0.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 0.94 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
PEC Zwolle have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PEC Zwolle won 0-5 on 12 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Telstar have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Telstar
0
Draws
4
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and PEC Zwolle?
From 4 meetings on record, Telstar have won 0, PEC Zwolle have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when PEC Zwolle 4-1 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 59%, PEC Zwolle 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Telstar) and 35% (PEC Zwolle).
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play PEC Zwolle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Telstar's recent matches and 29% of PEC Zwolle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Telstar vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Telstar's recent games and 35% of PEC Zwolle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Telstar and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PEC Zwolle run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Telstar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Telstar 0-5 at BUKO Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.65 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.25 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Telstar fell 1.7 short of their projected output. PEC Zwolle outscored their 1.25 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.86 / defence 1.14 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 47% | Draw 24% | PEC Zwolle 29%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual PEC Zwolle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 60%, PEC Zwolle 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Telstar 0.97 PPG, PEC Zwolle 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.