Telstar 1-3 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Telstar vs Jong Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 37 as Telstar welcome Jong Utrecht to BUKO Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 29 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Telstar have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Telstar at BUKO Stadion this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Utrecht stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Telstar) versus 0.70 (Jong Utrecht). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Telstar, 1 for Jong Utrecht and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2021, ended 0–3 with Jong Utrecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Telstar trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Jong Utrecht trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 64% versus Jong Utrecht 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 61% | Jong Utrecht 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 1.11 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 0.688 / defence 1.336 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.810 / defence 1.280. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.492. Telstar's attack strength of 0.688 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Jong Utrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.280 — this is suppressing Telstar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Telstar games / 36 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 26% | Draw 25% | Jong Utrecht 49%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Jong Utrecht 2.04. Jong Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Telstar 50% | Jong Utrecht 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: BUKO Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 29 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 26% | Draw 25% | Jong Utrecht 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Telstar 1.11 / Jong Utrecht 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 0.688 / def 1.336 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.810 / def 1.280 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.492 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Jong Utrecht xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Telstar vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 April 2022 at BUKO Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs Jong Utrecht?
Telstar 1 - 3 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Telstar vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at BUKO Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Telstar vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 26% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Telstar and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Jong Utrecht?
Record (1 meetings): Telstar 0W | Draws 0 | Jong Utrecht 1W.
What form are Telstar and Jong Utrecht in?
Telstar (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Telstar's attack at 0.69x the league average against Jong Utrecht's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus Telstar's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
26%
3.84
25%
3.98
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Telstar xG
Total xG
2.73
1.61
Jong Utrecht xG
3.84
26%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
20%
5.02
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
5%
19.27
16%
6.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Telstar and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Telstar and 1.61 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs Jong Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Telstar come into this having played 36 games, going 8W 11D 17L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Jong Utrecht sit at 0.97 PPG from 36 outings (10W 5D 21L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Telstar on 0.97 PPG, Jong Utrecht on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Telstar's home form reads 4W 5D 9L across 18 games on their own ground, a 0.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong Utrecht have taken 1.11 points per game from 18 outings (5W 5D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Telstar are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 1.06 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Telstar have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Current Season
Jong Utrecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 8W 11D 17L in their last 36 games (0.97 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 10W 5D 21L in their last 36 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Jong Utrecht's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 0.94 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Telstar and Jong Utrecht runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Feb 2025, when Telstar won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Telstar's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Telstar
3
Draws
2
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Jong Utrecht?
From 8 meetings on record, Telstar have won 3, Jong Utrecht have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Telstar 6-0 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and Jong Utrecht?
Telstar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 61%, Jong Utrecht 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Telstar) and 61% (Jong Utrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Telstar's games and 67% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Telstar vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Telstar's matches and 61% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Telstar and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong Utrecht cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Telstar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht beat Telstar 1-3 at BUKO Stadion, Regular Season - 37, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.11 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.61 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Jong Utrecht outscored their 1.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.69 / defence 1.34 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.81 / defence 1.28, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 26% | Draw 25% | Jong Utrecht 49%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 61%, Jong Utrecht 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Telstar 0.97 PPG, Jong Utrecht 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Telstar (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.