Telstar 1-0 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Telstar vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Telstar host Jong AZ at BUKO Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 January 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Telstar stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at BUKO Stadion, Telstar have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Telstar 1.40 PPG, Jong AZ 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Telstar have won 1, Jong AZ 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Telstar in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 61% versus Jong AZ 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 59% | Jong AZ 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 1.17 xG and Jong AZ 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 0.782 / defence 1.026 | Jong AZ attack 0.957 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.577 / away 1.371. Telstar's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 Telstar games / 56 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 33% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 41%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Jong AZ 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Telstar 50% | Jong AZ 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: BUKO Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 13 Jan 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 33% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Telstar 1.17 / Jong AZ 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 0.782 / def 1.026 | Jong AZ attack 0.957 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.577 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Jong AZ xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs Jong AZ kick off?
Telstar vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 January 2023 at BUKO Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs Jong AZ?
Telstar 1 - 0 Jong AZ.
Where is Telstar vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at BUKO Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs Jong AZ part of?
Telstar vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 33% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Telstar and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Jong AZ?
Record (3 meetings): Telstar 1W | Draws 1 | Jong AZ 1W.
What form are Telstar and Jong AZ in?
Telstar (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Telstar's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Jong AZ's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Telstar's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
33%
3.08
27%
3.74
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Telstar xG
Total xG
2.52
1.34
Jong AZ xG
3.08
33%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
8%
11.80
13%
7.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.8 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Telstar and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Telstar and 1.34 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Telstar have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 13W 18D 25L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ's form line: 20W 10D 26L from 56 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-W. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Telstar on 1.02 PPG, Jong AZ on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Telstar have posted 1.04 PPG from 27 outings (7W 7D 13L).
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 8W 4D 15L from 27 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Telstar are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.23 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Telstar have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 13W 18D 25L in their last 56 games (1.02 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 20W 10D 26L in their last 56 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or Jong AZ away?
Telstar's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 1.04 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Telstar's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Telstar
3
Draws
2
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Jong AZ?
From 8 meetings on record, Telstar have won 3, Jong AZ have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2025, when Jong AZ 1-2 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and Jong AZ?
Telstar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 56%, Jong AZ 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Telstar) and 52% (Jong AZ). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Telstar have failed to score in 30% of games; Jong AZ in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play Jong AZ?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Telstar's recent matches and 41% of Jong AZ's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Telstar vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Telstar's matches and 52% of Jong AZ's.
Do Telstar and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Telstar defy the odds to beat Jong AZ 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Telstar beat Jong AZ 1-0 at BUKO Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.17 xG and Jong AZ 1.34 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jong AZ landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.78 / defence 1.03 against Jong AZ attack 0.96 / defence 0.95, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 33% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 41%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Telstar win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 59%, Jong AZ 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong AZ's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Telstar 1.02 PPG, Jong AZ 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Telstar win broke the near-deadlock. Telstar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.