Telstar 1-0 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong AZ at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Telstar vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Telstar host Jong AZ at BUKO Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 24 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Telstar stand at 1W 3D 3L from 7 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.86 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Telstar have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at BUKO Stadion, Telstar have gone 0W 2D 1L this season (3 games, 0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have recorded 5W 0D 2L from 7 outings — 2.14 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.29 per game is modest, conceding 0.86 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong AZ away from home this season: 2W 0D 1L from 3 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Jong AZ are 1.28 PPG ahead (2.14 vs 0.86), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Telstar register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant matches, Jong AZ in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Telstar in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 57% versus Jong AZ 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 57% | Jong AZ 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 1.39 xG and Jong AZ 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 0.970 / defence 1.230 | Jong AZ attack 0.792 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.442. Data: 7 Telstar games / 7 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 37% | Draw 25% | Jong AZ 38%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Jong AZ 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Telstar 100% | Jong AZ 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: BUKO Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 37% | Draw 25% | Jong AZ 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Telstar 1.39 / Jong AZ 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 0.970 / def 1.230 | Jong AZ attack 0.792 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Jong AZ xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs Jong AZ kick off?
Telstar vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 September 2021 at BUKO Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs Jong AZ?
Telstar 1 - 0 Jong AZ.
Where is Telstar vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at BUKO Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs Jong AZ part of?
Telstar vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 37% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Telstar and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Jong AZ?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Telstar and Jong AZ in?
Telstar (all comps): 1W-3D-3L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Jong AZ (all comps): 5W-0D-2L in 7 | 2.14 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 0.86 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Telstar's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Jong AZ's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Telstar's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
37%
2.70
25%
3.95
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Telstar xG
Total xG
2.79
1.40
Jong AZ xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
9%
11.00
9%
10.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Telstar and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Telstar and 1.40 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 7 outings, Telstar have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 1W 3D 3L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Telstar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong AZ's form line: 5W 0D 2L from 7 games, 2.14 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Jong AZ are the form team by 1.28 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Telstar.
Venue Form
On home soil, Telstar have posted 0.67 PPG from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L).
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Telstar are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.29 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Early Season
Jong AZ
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 games (0.86 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 5W 0D 2L in their last 7 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or Jong AZ away?
Jong AZ's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 0.67 PPG; Jong AZ away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Telstar's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Telstar
3
Draws
2
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Jong AZ?
From 8 meetings on record, Telstar have won 3, Jong AZ have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2025, when Jong AZ 1-2 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and Jong AZ?
Telstar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jong AZ see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Telstar at 100%, Jong AZ at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Telstar) and 67% (Jong AZ).
On the defensive side: Jong AZ in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Telstar's games and 67% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Telstar vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Telstar's recent games and 67% of Jong AZ's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Telstar and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Telstar defy the odds to beat Jong AZ 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Telstar beat Jong AZ 1-0 at BUKO Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.39 xG and Jong AZ 1.40 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jong AZ landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.97 / defence 1.23 against Jong AZ attack 0.79 / defence 1.08, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 37% | Draw 25% | Jong AZ 38%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Telstar win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 57%, Jong AZ 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong AZ's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with Telstar winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Telstar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.