Telstar 1-5 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Volendam at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Telstar vs FC Volendam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees FC Volendam travel to BUKO Stadion to take on Telstar. The game is scheduled for Friday 15 October 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Telstar have gone 3W 3D 3L from 9 outings — a 1.33 PPG return. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.11 goals per game and conceding 1.56 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Telstar have posted 1W 2D 1L at BUKO Stadion — 1.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 5W 3D 1L from 9 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.44 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC Volendam have posted 2W 2D 0L from 4 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.25 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. FC Volendam's 2.00 PPG return is 0.67 points per game ahead of Telstar's 1.33 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Telstar trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
FC Volendam trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Telstar 44% and FC Volendam 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Telstar 44% | FC Volendam 89%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 1.28 xG and FC Volendam 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 0.931 / defence 1.128 | FC Volendam attack 1.130 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.376. Data: 9 Telstar games / 9 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 28% | Draw 23% | FC Volendam 49%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 3.57 | Draw 4.35 | FC Volendam 2.04. FC Volendam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Volendam as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Volendam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Telstar 75% | FC Volendam 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: BUKO Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 15 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 28% | Draw 23% | FC Volendam 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Telstar 1.28 / FC Volendam 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 0.931 / def 1.128 | FC Volendam attack 1.130 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.75
FC Volendam xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs FC Volendam kick off?
Telstar vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 October 2021 at BUKO Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs FC Volendam?
Telstar 1 - 5 FC Volendam.
Where is Telstar vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at BUKO Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs FC Volendam part of?
Telstar vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 28% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 49% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Telstar and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and FC Volendam?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Telstar and FC Volendam in?
Telstar (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.56 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. FC Volendam (all comps): 5W-3D-1L in 9 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.44 / GA 1.44 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Telstar's attack rating (0.93) and FC Volendam's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Telstar's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
28%
3.56
23%
4.27
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Telstar xG
Total xG
3.04
1.75
FC Volendam xG
3.56
28%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
17%
5.78
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
5%
20.60
13%
7.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Telstar and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Telstar and 1.75 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Telstar come into this having played 9 games, going 3W 3D 3L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Volendam sit at 2.00 PPG from 9 outings (5W 3D 1L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Telstar — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Telstar's home form reads 1W 2D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Volendam have taken 2.00 points per game from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Telstar are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 2.44 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 78%.
Last 9 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 games (1.33 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 5W 3D 1L in their last 9 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or FC Volendam away?
FC Volendam's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 1.25 PPG; FC Volendam away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Telstar or FC Volendam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Telstar have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC Volendam in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Telstar and FC Volendam runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Oct 2021, when FC Volendam won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Telstar's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Telstar
2
Draws
3
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and FC Volendam?
From 6 meetings on record, Telstar have won 1, FC Volendam have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when FC Volendam 1-2 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Telstar at 75%, FC Volendam at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Telstar) and 75% (FC Volendam).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Telstar's games and 75% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Telstar vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Telstar's recent games and 75% of FC Volendam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Telstar and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Volendam run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Telstar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Telstar 1-5 at BUKO Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.28 xG and FC Volendam 1.75 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. FC Volendam outscored their 1.75 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.93 / defence 1.13 against FC Volendam attack 1.13 / defence 1.04, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 28% | Draw 23% | FC Volendam 49%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 44%, FC Volendam 89%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Volendam's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Telstar (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.