Telstar 0-1 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Eindhoven at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Telstar vs FC Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 36 as Telstar welcome FC Eindhoven to BUKO Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 22 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Telstar have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Telstar at BUKO Stadion this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
FC Eindhoven — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC Eindhoven — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Telstar, 0 for FC Eindhoven and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Telstar trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
FC Eindhoven trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Telstar 66% and FC Eindhoven 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 63% | FC Eindhoven 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 0.90 xG and FC Eindhoven 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 0.736 / defence 1.441 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.971 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.452. Telstar's attack strength of 0.736 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 Telstar games / 35 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 16% | Draw 21% | FC Eindhoven 64%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 6.25 | Draw 4.76 | FC Eindhoven 1.56. The model has a clear lean to FC Eindhoven (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Eindhoven are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Telstar 50% | FC Eindhoven 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: BUKO Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 22 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 16% | Draw 21% | FC Eindhoven 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 51% | xG Telstar 0.90 / FC Eindhoven 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 0.736 / def 1.441 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.971 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
2.03
FC Eindhoven xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Telstar vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 April 2022 at BUKO Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs FC Eindhoven?
Telstar 0 - 1 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Telstar vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at BUKO Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Telstar vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 16% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 64% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Telstar and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and FC Eindhoven?
Record (1 meetings): Telstar 0W | Draws 1 | FC Eindhoven 0W.
What form are Telstar and FC Eindhoven in?
Telstar (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Telstar's attack at 0.74x the league average against FC Eindhoven's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus Telstar's defence, projects 2.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.0%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
16%
6.38
21%
4.84
64%
1.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Telstar xG
Total xG
2.93
2.03
FC Eindhoven xG
6.38
16%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
1.57
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
13%
7.62
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
2%
48.64
26%
3.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 10.9 | 11.1 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Telstar and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Telstar and 2.03 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs FC Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Telstar come into this having played 35 games, going 8W 11D 16L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, FC Eindhoven sit at 1.83 PPG from 35 outings (19W 7D 9L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five.
FC Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Telstar — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Telstar's home form reads 4W 5D 8L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Eindhoven have taken 1.59 points per game from 17 outings (8W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Telstar are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.86 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Telstar have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Current Season
FC Eindhoven
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 8W 11D 16L in their last 35 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 19W 7D 9L in their last 35 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or FC Eindhoven away?
FC Eindhoven's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 1.00 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Telstar or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Telstar have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2025, when Telstar won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Telstar's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Telstar
2
Draws
5
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and FC Eindhoven?
From 8 meetings on record, Telstar have won 1, FC Eindhoven have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2025, when FC Eindhoven 0-4 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and FC Eindhoven?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 65%, FC Eindhoven 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Telstar) and 47% (FC Eindhoven).
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven in 35%; FC Eindhoven in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Telstar's recent matches and 41% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Telstar vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Telstar's recent games and 47% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Telstar and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Eindhoven edge out Telstar 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Telstar 0-1 at BUKO Stadion, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 0.90 xG and FC Eindhoven 2.03 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Telstar fell 0.9 short of their projected output. FC Eindhoven landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.74 / defence 1.44 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.97 / defence 0.96, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 16% | Draw 21% | FC Eindhoven 64%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 63%, FC Eindhoven 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.