Telstar 1-2 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Telstar at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Telstar vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Den Bosch make the trip to BUKO Stadion to face Telstar in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Friday 1 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Telstar (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at BUKO Stadion, Telstar have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Den Bosch's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Den Bosch have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Telstar, 0.80 for Den Bosch — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Telstar 1W, Den Bosch 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Telstar winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Telstar — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 62% versus Den Bosch 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 59% | Den Bosch 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 1.34 xG and Den Bosch 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 0.742 / defence 1.397 | Den Bosch attack 0.587 / defence 1.434. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.435. Telstar's attack strength of 0.742 is below the league average — the 1.34 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Den Bosch bring a strong defensive rating of 1.434 — this is suppressing Telstar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Telstar games / 32 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 40% | Draw 28% | Den Bosch 32%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Den Bosch 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Telstar are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Telstar if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Telstar 50% | Den Bosch 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: BUKO Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 40% | Draw 28% | Den Bosch 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Telstar 1.34 / Den Bosch 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 0.742 / def 1.397 | Den Bosch attack 0.587 / def 1.434 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: Telstar (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Den Bosch xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs Den Bosch kick off?
Telstar vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 April 2022 at BUKO Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs Den Bosch?
Telstar 1 - 2 Den Bosch.
Where is Telstar vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at BUKO Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs Den Bosch part of?
Telstar vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 40% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Telstar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Telstar and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Den Bosch?
Record (1 meetings): Telstar 1W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 0W.
What form are Telstar and Den Bosch in?
Telstar (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Telstar's attack rating (0.74) and Den Bosch's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (0.59x) against Telstar's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Telstar Win
40%
2.50
28%
3.58
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Telstar xG
Total xG
2.52
1.18
Den Bosch xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
12%
8.10
8%
11.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Telstar and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Telstar and 1.18 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 32 outings, Telstar have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 7W 11D 14L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Den Bosch's form line: 10W 4D 18L from 32 games, 1.06 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Telstar against 1.06 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Telstar have posted 1.06 PPG from 16 outings (4W 5D 7L).
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 2W 3D 11L from 16 away games — 0.56 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Den Bosch's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Telstar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Telstar are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.03 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Telstar have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Current Season
Den Bosch
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 7W 11D 14L in their last 32 games (1.00 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 10W 4D 18L in their last 32 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or Den Bosch away?
Telstar's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 1.06 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Telstar won 1-4 on 17 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Telstar have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Telstar
3
Draws
1
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Telstar have won 6, Den Bosch have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2025, when Telstar 2-1 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and Den Bosch?
Telstar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 62%, Den Bosch 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Telstar) and 56% (Den Bosch). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Telstar's recent matches and 44% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Telstar vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Telstar's matches and 56% of Den Bosch's.
Do Telstar and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Den Bosch defy the odds to beat Telstar 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat Telstar 1-2 at BUKO Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.34 xG and Den Bosch 1.18 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Den Bosch outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.74 / defence 1.40 against Den Bosch attack 0.59 / defence 1.43, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 40% | Draw 28% | Den Bosch 32%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Den Bosch win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 59%, Den Bosch 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Telstar 1.00 PPG, Den Bosch 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.