Telstar 0-1 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Telstar at 41%, yet in-form Almere City FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Telstar vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Almere City FC make the trip to BUKO Stadion to face Telstar in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Friday 27 January 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Telstar have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Telstar at BUKO Stadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Almere City FC's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Almere City FC are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Telstar lead 1W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with Telstar winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Telstar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Almere City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 59% versus Almere City FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 58% | Almere City FC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 1.51 xG and Almere City FC 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 1.023 / defence 1.057 | Almere City FC attack 0.951 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.344. Data: 59 Telstar games / 59 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 41% | Draw 25% | Almere City FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Almere City FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Telstar are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Almere City FC (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Telstar if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Telstar 50% | Almere City FC 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: BUKO Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 27 Jan 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 41% | Draw 25% | Almere City FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Telstar 1.51 / Almere City FC 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 1.023 / def 1.057 | Almere City FC attack 0.951 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Telstar (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Almere City FC xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs Almere City FC kick off?
Telstar vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 January 2023 at BUKO Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs Almere City FC?
Telstar 0 - 1 Almere City FC.
Where is Telstar vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at BUKO Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs Almere City FC part of?
Telstar vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 41% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Telstar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Telstar and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Almere City FC?
Record (3 meetings): Telstar 1W | Draws 2 | Almere City FC 0W.
What form are Telstar and Almere City FC in?
Telstar (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Almere City FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Telstar's attack rating (1.02) and Almere City FC's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (0.95x) against Telstar's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Telstar Win
41%
2.43
25%
4.02
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Telstar xG
Total xG
2.86
1.35
Almere City FC xG
2.43
41%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
11%
9.39
7%
13.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.7 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Telstar and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Telstar and 1.35 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Telstar come into this having played 59 games, going 15W 19D 25L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 1.31 PPG from 59 outings (22W 11D 26L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Telstar against 1.31 for Almere City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Telstar's home form reads 9W 7D 13L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Almere City FC have taken 1.21 points per game from 29 outings (10W 5D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Telstar are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.53 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 15W 19D 25L in their last 59 games (1.08 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 22W 11D 26L in their last 59 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or Almere City FC away?
Almere City FC's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 1.17 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Telstar have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Telstar
2
Draws
1
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Almere City FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Telstar have won 1, Almere City FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2023, when Telstar 0-1 Almere City FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 55%, Almere City FC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Telstar and 66% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Telstar have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Telstar's games and 62% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Telstar vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Telstar's matches and 66% of Almere City FC's.
Do Telstar and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Almere City FC defy the odds to beat Telstar 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Telstar 0-1 at BUKO Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.51 xG and Almere City FC 1.35 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Telstar fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 1.02 / defence 1.06 against Almere City FC attack 0.95 / defence 0.96, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 41% | Draw 25% | Almere City FC 34%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Almere City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 58%, Almere City FC 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Almere City FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Telstar 1.08 PPG, Almere City FC 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.