Roda 1-1 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs Jong PSV U21 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Jong PSV U21 travel to Parkstad Limburg Stadion to take on Roda. The game is scheduled for Friday 9 September 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Roda have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Roda are significantly better at Parkstad Limburg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Jong PSV U21 — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Jong PSV U21 have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong PSV U21's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Roda 1.40 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Roda register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Jong PSV U21 in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Roda, 0 for Jong PSV U21 and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Roda in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Jong PSV U21 in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 56% versus Jong PSV U21 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 56% | Jong PSV U21 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.89 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.995 / defence 1.095 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.038 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.329. Jong PSV U21 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Roda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Roda games / 43 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 47% | Draw 22% | Jong PSV U21 31%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.13 | Draw 4.55 | Jong PSV U21 3.23. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.40 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 60% | Jong PSV U21 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 9 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 47% | Draw 22% | Jong PSV U21 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Roda 1.89 / Jong PSV U21 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.995 / def 1.095 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.038 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Roda (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Jong PSV U21 xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Roda vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 9 September 2022 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Jong PSV U21?
Roda 1 - 1 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Roda vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Roda vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 47% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 31% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Roda and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Jong PSV U21?
Record (2 meetings): Roda 0W | Draws 2 | Jong PSV U21 0W.
What form are Roda and Jong PSV U21 in?
Roda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Roda's attack rating (0.99) and Jong PSV U21's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
47%
2.14
22%
4.50
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Roda xG
Total xG
3.40
1.51
Jong PSV U21 xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
10%
9.68
5%
21.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.5 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Roda and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Roda and 1.51 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Roda have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 20W 14D 9L record — W-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong PSV U21's form line: 12W 12D 19L from 43 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Roda are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong PSV U21.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Roda have posted 1.86 PPG from 21 outings (11W 6D 4L).
On the road, Jong PSV U21 have gone 4W 6D 11L from 21 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Roda are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.51 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Early Season
Jong PSV U21
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 20W 14D 9L in their last 43 games (1.72 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 12W 12D 19L in their last 43 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Roda's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.86 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Roda or Jong PSV U21 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Jong PSV U21 in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Roda and Jong PSV U21 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2023, when Jong PSV U21 won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting Jong PSV U21 specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Roda
3
Draws
2
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Jong PSV U21?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 5, Jong PSV U21 have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Roda 0-2 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Jong PSV U21?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 52%, Jong PSV U21 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Roda) and 57% (Jong PSV U21). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Jong PSV U21 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Roda's games and 67% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Roda's matches and 57% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do Roda and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda and Jong PSV U21 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda and Jong PSV U21 finished level at 1-1 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.89 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.51 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Roda fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.99 / defence 1.09 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.04 / defence 1.21, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 47% | Draw 22% | Jong PSV U21 31%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 56%, Jong PSV U21 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Roda (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.