Roda 2-2 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs Jong Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Roda host Jong Ajax at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 8 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Roda have posted 6W 3D 1L at Parkstad Limburg Stadion — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
Jong Ajax — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Ajax have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Roda) versus 1.50 (Jong Ajax). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Roda, 1 for Jong Ajax and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with Jong Ajax winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Roda in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Jong Ajax in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 58% and Jong Ajax 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Roda 61% | Jong Ajax 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 2.06 xG and Jong Ajax 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.237 / defence 0.829 | Jong Ajax attack 0.957 / defence 1.350. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.414. Jong Ajax bring a strong defensive rating of 1.350 — this is suppressing Roda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Roda games / 33 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 59% | Draw 21% | Jong Ajax 20%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Jong Ajax 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Roda (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Roda 50% | Jong Ajax 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 8 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 59% | Draw 21% | Jong Ajax 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 59% | xG Roda 2.06 / Jong Ajax 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.237 / def 0.829 | Jong Ajax attack 0.957 / def 1.350 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Roda (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Jong Ajax xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Jong Ajax kick off?
Roda vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 8 April 2022 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Jong Ajax?
Roda 2 - 2 Jong Ajax.
Where is Roda vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Jong Ajax part of?
Roda vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 59% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Roda and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Jong Ajax?
Record (1 meetings): Roda 0W | Draws 0 | Jong Ajax 1W.
What form are Roda and Jong Ajax in?
Roda (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Jong Ajax (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Roda's attack at 1.24x the league average against Jong Ajax's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Ajax's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
59%
1.70
21%
4.72
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Roda xG
Total xG
3.19
1.12
Jong Ajax xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
13%
7.89
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
3%
39.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Roda and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Roda and 1.12 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Jong Ajax?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Roda's recent record stands at 16W 11D 6L from 33 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Jong Ajax, meanwhile, have gone 17W 7D 9L across 33 games — 1.76 PPG, with W-D-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.79 PPG, Jong Ajax on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Roda have managed 8W 5D 3L from 16 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong Ajax's away record stands at 6W 4D 6L across 16 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Roda are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 2.18 scored and 1.67 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax in 79%.
Defensively: Roda have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Current Season
Jong Ajax
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 16W 11D 6L in their last 33 games (1.79 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 17W 7D 9L in their last 33 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Jong Ajax away?
Roda's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.81 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Roda or Jong Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Jong Ajax in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Roda's record when hosting Jong Ajax specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Roda
4
Draws
2
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Jong Ajax?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 4, Jong Ajax have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Jong Ajax 2-2 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Jong Ajax?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 50%, Jong Ajax 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Roda) and 62% (Jong Ajax). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Roda's games and 75% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Roda's matches and 62% of Jong Ajax's.
Do Roda and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda and Jong Ajax share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 34, as Roda and Jong Ajax drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 2.06 xG and Jong Ajax 1.12 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Jong Ajax outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.24 / defence 0.83 against Jong Ajax attack 0.96 / defence 1.35, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 59% | Draw 21% | Jong Ajax 20%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 61%, Jong Ajax 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.79 PPG, Jong Ajax 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Roda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.