Roda 0-1 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 79%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs Helmond Sport fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Helmond Sport make the trip to Parkstad Limburg Stadion to face Roda in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Roda's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's home record at Parkstad Limburg Stadion: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Roda are significantly better at Parkstad Limburg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Helmond Sport (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helmond Sport's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Roda, 0 for Helmond Sport and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2022, ended 5–3 with Roda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Roda — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Helmond Sport — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 60% versus Helmond Sport 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 60% | Helmond Sport 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 2.78 xG and Helmond Sport 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.216 / defence 0.971 | Helmond Sport attack 0.583 / defence 1.349. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.355. Helmond Sport bring a strong defensive rating of 1.349 — this is suppressing Roda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Roda games / 52 Helmond Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 79% | Draw 13% | Helmond Sport 8%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.27 | Draw 7.69 | Helmond Sport 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Roda (79%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Roda at 79% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 3.55 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Roda 80% | Helmond Sport 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 79% | Draw 13% | Helmond Sport 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 50% | xG Roda 2.78 / Helmond Sport 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.216 / def 0.971 | Helmond Sport attack 0.583 / def 1.349 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Roda (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.78
Roda xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Helmond Sport xG
50%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Helmond Sport kick off?
Roda vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Helmond Sport?
Roda 0 - 1 Helmond Sport.
Where is Roda vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Helmond Sport part of?
Roda vs Helmond Sport is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 79% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 8% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Roda and Helmond Sport will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Helmond Sport?
Record (2 meetings): Roda 2W | Draws 0 | Helmond Sport 0W.
What form are Roda and Helmond Sport in?
Roda (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Helmond Sport (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Roda's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Helmond Sport's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.78. Flip it around — Helmond Sport's attack (0.58x) against Roda's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.1%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
79%
1.26
13%
7.51
8%
13.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.78
Roda xG
Total xG
3.55
0.77
Helmond Sport xG
1.26
79%
Home win
7.51
13%
Draw
13.21
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
6%
16.12
Win to Nil
37%
2.72
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.3 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Roda and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 2.78 expected goals for Roda and 0.77 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Helmond Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, Roda have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 23W 16D 13L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helmond Sport's form line: 12W 7D 33L from 52 games, 0.83 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Roda are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Helmond Sport.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Roda have posted 1.96 PPG from 25 outings (14W 7D 4L).
On the road, Helmond Sport have gone 5W 3D 17L from 25 away games — 0.72 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Roda are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 0.98 scored and 1.92 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 23W 16D 13L in their last 52 games (1.63 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 12W 7D 33L in their last 52 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Helmond Sport away?
Roda's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.96 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 0-3 on 5 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Helmond Sport — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Roda
2
Draws
3
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Helmond Sport?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 5, Helmond Sport have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Helmond Sport last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Roda 1-1 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Helmond Sport?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 60%, Helmond Sport 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Roda) and 52% (Helmond Sport). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Helmond Sport in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Helmond Sport?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Roda's recent matches and 40% of Helmond Sport's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs Helmond Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Roda's matches and 52% of Helmond Sport's.
Do Roda and Helmond Sport tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Helmond Sport in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Helmond Sport defy the odds to beat Roda 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helmond Sport beat Roda 0-1 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 2.78 xG and Helmond Sport 0.77 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Roda fell 2.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.22 / defence 0.97 against Helmond Sport attack 0.58 / defence 1.35, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 79% | Draw 13% | Helmond Sport 8%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 79%. Instead the game produced a Helmond Sport win, an outcome the model had rated at just 8% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 60%, Helmond Sport 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.83. Form was overturned, with Helmond Sport winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.