Roda 1-1 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parkstad Limburg Stadion plays host to Roda versus FC Volendam in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Monday 7 February 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Roda (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
FC Volendam have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam away from home this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, FC Volendam are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Roda 0W, FC Volendam 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
FC Volendam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 58% and FC Volendam 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Roda 67% | FC Volendam 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.49 xG and FC Volendam 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.244 / defence 0.956 | FC Volendam attack 0.966 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.128 / away 1.432. Data: 24 Roda games / 24 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 41% | Draw 25% | FC Volendam 34%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | FC Volendam 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Volendam (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Roda 40% | FC Volendam 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 7 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 41% | Draw 25% | FC Volendam 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Roda 1.49 / FC Volendam 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.244 / def 0.956 | FC Volendam attack 0.966 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.128 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Roda (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.32
FC Volendam xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs FC Volendam kick off?
Roda vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 7 February 2022 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs FC Volendam?
Roda 1 - 1 FC Volendam.
Where is Roda vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs FC Volendam part of?
Roda vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 41% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Roda and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and FC Volendam?
Record (1 meetings): Roda 0W | Draws 1 | FC Volendam 0W.
What form are Roda and FC Volendam in?
Roda (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. FC Volendam (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Roda's attack rating (1.24) and FC Volendam's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (0.97x) against Roda's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
41%
2.43
25%
3.98
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Roda xG
Total xG
2.81
1.32
FC Volendam xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
11%
9.11
8%
13.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Roda and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Roda and 1.32 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Roda come into this having played 24 games, going 11W 8D 5L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Volendam sit at 2.29 PPG from 24 outings (16W 7D 1L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Roda — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Roda's home form reads 5W 4D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Volendam have taken 2.17 points per game from 12 outings (7W 5D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Roda are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 2.29 scored and 1.17 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 62%.
Defensively: Roda have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; FC Volendam in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 11W 8D 5L in their last 24 games (1.71 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 16W 7D 1L in their last 24 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or FC Volendam away?
FC Volendam's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.58 PPG; FC Volendam away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Roda or FC Volendam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, FC Volendam in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Roda
3
Draws
1
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, Roda have won 0, FC Volendam have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Roda and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2025, when FC Volendam 3-2 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
FC Volendam see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 50%, FC Volendam 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Roda) and 50% (FC Volendam).
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; FC Volendam in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play FC Volendam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Roda's recent matches and 58% of FC Volendam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Roda's recent games and 50% of FC Volendam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Roda and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda and FC Volendam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda and FC Volendam finished level at 1-1 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.49 xG and FC Volendam 1.32 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.24 / defence 0.96 against FC Volendam attack 0.97 / defence 1.06, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 41% | Draw 25% | FC Volendam 34%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 67%, FC Volendam 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Volendam's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Roda (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.