Roda vs Emmen – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Roda at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parkstad Limburg Stadion plays host to Roda versus Emmen in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Friday 30 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Roda have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Roda have posted 3W 4D 3L at Parkstad Limburg Stadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Emmen's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Roda 4W, Emmen 3W, 2D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2026, ended 0–1 with Emmen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Emmen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 61% and Emmen 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 52% | Emmen 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 2.51 xG and Emmen 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.918 / defence 0.777 | Emmen attack 1.069 / defence 1.368. League average goals — home 1.997 / away 1.525. Emmen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.368 — this is suppressing Roda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Roda's defence rating of 0.777 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Roda games / 46 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 64% | Draw 18% | Emmen 18%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.56 | Draw 5.56 | Emmen 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Roda (64%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.77. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.77 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.51 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Roda 50% | Emmen 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 30 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 64% | Draw 18% | Emmen 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 66% | xG Roda 2.51 / Emmen 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.918 / def 0.777 | Emmen attack 1.069 / def 1.368 | league avg home 1.997 / away 1.525 • Poisson stance: Roda (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.51
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Emmen xG
66%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Emmen kick off?
Roda vs Emmen is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 30 April 2027 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
Where is Roda vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Emmen part of?
Roda vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 64% chance of winning, Emmen a 18% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Roda and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Emmen?
Record (9 meetings): Roda 4W | Draws 2 | Emmen 3W.
What form are Roda and Emmen in?
Roda (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Emmen (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Roda's attack at 0.92x the league average against Emmen's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 2.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Emmen's attack (1.07x) against Roda's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.2%), 3-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
64%
1.55
18%
5.59
18%
5.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.6%
Home win
1 – 1
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.51
Roda xG
Total xG
3.77
1.27
Emmen xG
1.55
64%
Home win
5.59
18%
Draw
5.65
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
8%
12.28
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
1%
69.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Roda and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Roda and 1.27 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Emmen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Roda come into this having played 46 games, going 16W 18D 12L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-W. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Emmen sit at 1.30 PPG from 46 outings (17W 9D 20L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Roda against 1.30 for Emmen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Roda's home form reads 6W 8D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Emmen have taken 0.86 points per game from 22 outings (5W 4D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Emmen's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Roda are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.65 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Emmen in 61%.
Last 46 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Emmen in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 16W 18D 12L in their last 46 games (1.43 PPG), while Emmen have gone 17W 9D 20L in their last 46 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Emmen away?
Roda's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.18 PPG; Emmen away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Emmen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Roda
2
Draws
3
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Emmen?
From 9 meetings on record, Roda have won 4, Emmen have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Emmen 1-0 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Emmen?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 59%, Emmen 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Roda) and 68% (Emmen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Roda's games and 59% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Roda's matches and 68% of Emmen's.
Do Roda and Emmen tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Emmen in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.