Roda 2-0 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 27 as Roda welcome De Graafschap to Parkstad Limburg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Monday 14 March 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Roda have posted 5W 4D 1L at Parkstad Limburg Stadion — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Roda carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Roda have won 1, De Graafschap 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 3–0 with Roda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Roda in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 59% versus De Graafschap 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 62% | De Graafschap 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.29 xG and De Graafschap 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.210 / defence 0.862 | De Graafschap attack 0.892 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.439. Data: 29 Roda games / 29 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 40% | Draw 29% | De Graafschap 31%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | De Graafschap 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 50% | De Graafschap 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 14 Mar 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 40% | Draw 29% | De Graafschap 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Roda 1.29 / De Graafschap 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.210 / def 0.862 | De Graafschap attack 0.892 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: Roda (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.11
De Graafschap xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs De Graafschap kick off?
Roda vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 14 March 2022 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs De Graafschap?
Roda 2 - 0 De Graafschap.
Where is Roda vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs De Graafschap part of?
Roda vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 40% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Roda and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and De Graafschap?
Record (1 meetings): Roda 1W | Draws 0 | De Graafschap 0W.
What form are Roda and De Graafschap in?
Roda (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Roda's attack rating (1.21) and De Graafschap's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
40%
2.49
29%
3.50
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Roda xG
Total xG
2.40
1.11
De Graafschap xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
9%
11.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.1 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Roda and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Roda and 1.11 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Roda's recent record stands at 13W 10D 6L from 29 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-W in the last five.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 13W 8D 8L across 29 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-D-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.69 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Roda have managed 6W 5D 3L from 14 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 9W 2D 3L across 14 trips, a 2.07 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.62 PPG overall record — De Graafschap travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Roda are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.38 scored and 1.00 conceded. Roda's scoring rate against De Graafschap's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: De Graafschap in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Current Season
De Graafschap
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 13W 10D 6L in their last 29 games (1.69 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 13W 8D 8L in their last 29 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.64 PPG; De Graafschap away: 2.07 PPG.
Have Roda or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Roda and De Graafschap runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Roda have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2021, when Roda won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Roda
2
Draws
3
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 5, De Graafschap have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when De Graafschap 2-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and De Graafschap?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
De Graafschap see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 50%, De Graafschap 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Roda and 64% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; De Graafschap in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play De Graafschap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Roda's recent matches and 43% of De Graafschap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Roda's matches and 64% of De Graafschap's.
Do Roda and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat De Graafschap 2-0 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.29 xG and De Graafschap 1.11 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. De Graafschap landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.21 / defence 0.86 against De Graafschap attack 0.89 / defence 0.84, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 40% | Draw 29% | De Graafschap 31%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 62%, De Graafschap 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
De Graafschap's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.69 PPG, De Graafschap 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.