Roda vs Almere City FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 38 as Roda welcome Almere City FC to Parkstad Limburg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 14 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's home record at Parkstad Limburg Stadion: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Almere City FC — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Roda) versus 1.60 (Almere City FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Roda have won 3, Almere City FC 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Jan 2026, ended 2–1 with Roda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Roda trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Almere City FC trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 60% and Almere City FC 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 52% | Almere City FC 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.47 xG and Almere City FC 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.918 / defence 0.777 | Almere City FC attack 1.346 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.997 / away 1.525. Almere City FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.346 — the away xG of 1.60 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Roda's defence rating of 0.777 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Roda games / 46 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 35% | Draw 24% | Almere City FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | Almere City FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Roda 50% | Almere City FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 14 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 35% | Draw 24% | Almere City FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Roda 1.47 / Almere City FC 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.918 / def 0.777 | Almere City FC attack 1.346 / def 0.801 | league avg home 1.997 / away 1.525 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Almere City FC xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Almere City FC kick off?
Roda vs Almere City FC is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 14 May 2027 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
Where is Roda vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Almere City FC part of?
Roda vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 35% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Roda and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Almere City FC?
Record (6 meetings): Roda 3W | Draws 0 | Almere City FC 3W.
What form are Roda and Almere City FC in?
Roda (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Almere City FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Roda's attack rating (0.92) and Almere City FC's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
35%
2.84
24%
4.17
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Roda xG
Total xG
3.06
1.60
Almere City FC xG
2.84
35%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
20%
4.93
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
7%
14.00
9%
10.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.9 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Roda and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Roda and 1.60 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Roda come into this having played 48 games, going 18W 18D 12L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-W. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 1.69 PPG from 48 outings (25W 6D 17L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.50 PPG, Almere City FC on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Roda's home form reads 7W 9D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Almere City FC have taken 1.50 points per game from 24 outings (11W 3D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Roda are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 2.10 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Almere City FC in 65%.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 18W 18D 12L in their last 48 games (1.50 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 25W 6D 17L in their last 48 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Almere City FC away?
Almere City FC's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.25 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Roda and Almere City FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Roda have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2022, when Roda won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Roda
0
Draws
3
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Roda have won 3, Almere City FC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Almere City FC 1-2 Roda.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 54%, Almere City FC 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 46% for Roda and 75% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Roda's games and 75% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Roda's matches and 75% of Almere City FC's.
Do Roda and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.