PEC Zwolle 2-2 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this PEC Zwolle vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
PEC Zwolle and Willem II meet at MAC³PARK Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Friday 9 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
PEC Zwolle (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. PEC Zwolle have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at MAC³PARK Stadion, PEC Zwolle have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Willem II's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Willem II have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Willem II away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for PEC Zwolle, 1 for Willem II and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2022, ended 2–0 with PEC Zwolle winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
PEC Zwolle — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Willem II — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 44% versus Willem II 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 41% | Willem II 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.90 xG and Willem II 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 1.177 / defence 1.160 | Willem II attack 0.699 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.329. Data: 5 PEC Zwolle games / 5 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 56% | Draw 22% | Willem II 21%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Willem II 4.76. The model has a clear lean to PEC Zwolle (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PEC Zwolle are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 80% | Willem II 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 9 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 56% | Draw 22% | Willem II 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.90 / Willem II 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 1.177 / def 1.160 | Willem II attack 0.699 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Willem II xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Willem II kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 9 September 2022 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Willem II?
PEC Zwolle 2 - 2 Willem II.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Willem II part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 56% chance of winning, Willem II a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Willem II?
Record (2 meetings): PEC Zwolle 1W | Draws 0 | Willem II 1W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Willem II in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Willem II (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 1.18x the league average against Willem II's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.70x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
56%
1.77
22%
4.49
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.98
1.08
Willem II xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
15%
6.67
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
3%
31.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.4 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.08 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Willem II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 39 outings, PEC Zwolle have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 12W 6D 21L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Willem II's form line: 11W 8D 20L from 39 games, 1.05 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for PEC Zwolle against 1.05 for Willem II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, PEC Zwolle have posted 1.05 PPG from 19 outings (5W 5D 9L).
On the road, Willem II have gone 2W 4D 13L from 19 away games — 0.53 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Willem II's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PEC Zwolle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 0.95 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Early Season
Willem II
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Willem II in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 12W 6D 21L in their last 39 games (1.08 PPG), while Willem II have gone 11W 8D 20L in their last 39 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Willem II away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.05 PPG; Willem II away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
PEC Zwolle
1
Draws
2
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 3, Willem II have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2025, when Willem II 1-2 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Willem II?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 58%, Willem II 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (PEC Zwolle) and 53% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle have failed to score in 32% of games; Willem II in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Willem II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 47% of Willem II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 53% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and Willem II tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Willem II in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PEC Zwolle and Willem II share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle and Willem II finished level at 2-2 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.90 xG and Willem II 1.08 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Willem II outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 1.18 / defence 1.16 against Willem II attack 0.70 / defence 1.02, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 56% | Draw 22% | Willem II 21%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 41%, Willem II 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.08 PPG, Willem II 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.