PEC Zwolle 3-2 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this PEC Zwolle vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 11 as PEC Zwolle welcome Heracles to MAC³PARK Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 14 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, PEC Zwolle have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, PEC Zwolle have posted 3W 3D 4L at MAC³PARK Stadion — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at MAC³PARK Stadion this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles away from home this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Heracles — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 2.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, PEC Zwolle have won 1, Heracles 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 0–2 with Heracles winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
PEC Zwolle trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Heracles trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 48% versus Heracles 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 46% | Heracles 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.47 xG and Heracles 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.961 / defence 1.206 | Heracles attack 1.136 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.363. Data: 10 PEC Zwolle games / 10 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 30% | Draw 22% | Heracles 47%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 3.33 | Draw 4.55 | Heracles 2.13. Heracles hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heracles as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heracles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: PEC Zwolle 90% | Heracles 10%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Heracles | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 14 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 30% | Draw 22% | Heracles 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.47 / Heracles 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.961 / def 1.206 | Heracles attack 1.136 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Heracles (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Heracles xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Heracles kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Heracles kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 14 October 2022 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?
PEC Zwolle 3 - 2 Heracles.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Heracles part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 30% chance of winning, Heracles a 47% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Heracles?
Record (2 meetings): PEC Zwolle 1W | Draws 0 | Heracles 1W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Heracles in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Heracles (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PEC Zwolle's attack rating (0.96) and Heracles's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
30%
3.29
22%
4.46
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
3.33
1.87
Heracles xG
3.29
30%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
15%
6.47
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
5%
21.27
11%
9.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.87 for Heracles, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PEC Zwolle come into this having played 44 games, going 13W 8D 23L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Heracles sit at 1.32 PPG from 44 outings (17W 7D 20L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: PEC Zwolle on 1.07 PPG, Heracles on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
PEC Zwolle's home form reads 5W 7D 10L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Heracles have taken 0.86 points per game from 22 outings (6W 1D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heracles's season.
The Goals Picture
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.36 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Heracles in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 13W 8D 23L in their last 44 games (1.07 PPG), while Heracles have gone 17W 7D 20L in their last 44 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Heracles away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.00 PPG; Heracles away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PEC Zwolle and Heracles runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2025, when Heracles won 8-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PEC Zwolle's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
PEC Zwolle
0
Draws
4
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Heracles?
From 10 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 6, Heracles have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when PEC Zwolle 1-0 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Heracles?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 64%, Heracles 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (PEC Zwolle) and 59% (Heracles).
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle have failed to score in 27% of games; Heracles in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 32% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 59% of Heracles's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and Heracles tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Heracles in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PEC Zwolle defy the odds to beat Heracles 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Heracles 3-2 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.47 xG and Heracles 1.87 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. PEC Zwolle beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.96 / defence 1.21 against Heracles attack 1.14 / defence 0.93, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 30% | Draw 22% | Heracles 47%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual PEC Zwolle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 46%, Heracles 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Heracles's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.07 PPG, Heracles 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.