PEC Zwolle 4-1 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PEC Zwolle at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PEC Zwolle vs FC OSS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC OSS make the trip to MAC³PARK Stadion to face PEC Zwolle in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Friday 27 January 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
PEC Zwolle (all games): 9W 0D 1L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle at MAC³PARK Stadion this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at MAC³PARK Stadion this season.
FC OSS's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC OSS have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward PEC Zwolle. A 1.90 PPG lead over FC OSS (2.70 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PEC Zwolle lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2022, ended 5–0 with PEC Zwolle winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
PEC Zwolle — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
FC OSS — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 44% versus FC OSS 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 46% | FC OSS 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.75 xG and FC OSS 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 1.175 / defence 1.006 | FC OSS attack 0.749 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.344. Data: 20 PEC Zwolle games / 59 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 55% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 22%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | FC OSS 4.55. The model has a clear lean to PEC Zwolle (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PEC Zwolle as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 70% | FC OSS 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 27 Jan 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 55% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.75 / FC OSS 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 1.175 / def 1.006 | FC OSS attack 0.749 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.01
FC OSS xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs FC OSS kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 January 2023 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs FC OSS?
PEC Zwolle 4 - 1 FC OSS.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs FC OSS part of?
PEC Zwolle vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 55% chance of winning, FC OSS a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both PEC Zwolle and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and FC OSS?
Record (1 meetings): PEC Zwolle 1W | Draws 0 | FC OSS 0W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and FC OSS in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. FC OSS (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
PEC Zwolle's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against FC OSS's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. Flip it around — FC OSS's attack (0.75x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 20/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
55%
1.83
24%
4.25
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.77
1.01
FC OSS xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
17%
5.77
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
4%
26.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.2 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.01 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs FC OSS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, PEC Zwolle have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 22W 8D 24L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC OSS's form line: 13W 11D 30L from 54 games, 0.93 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-L. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PEC Zwolle are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC OSS.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, PEC Zwolle have posted 1.42 PPG from 26 outings (10W 7D 9L).
On the road, FC OSS have gone 6W 5D 15L from 26 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PEC Zwolle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.17 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC OSS in 61%.
Last 54 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and FC OSS in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 22W 8D 24L in their last 54 games (1.37 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 13W 11D 30L in their last 54 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or FC OSS away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.42 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
PEC Zwolle
0
Draws
0
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and FC OSS?
From 2 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 2, FC OSS have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2023, when PEC Zwolle 4-1 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and FC OSS?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 65%, FC OSS 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (PEC Zwolle) and 65% (FC OSS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play FC OSS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of PEC Zwolle's games and 58% of FC OSS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PEC Zwolle vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 65% of FC OSS's.
Do PEC Zwolle and FC OSS tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PEC Zwolle run riot with a 4-1 hammering of FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat FC OSS 4-1 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.75 xG and FC OSS 1.01 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. PEC Zwolle beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 1.18 / defence 1.01 against FC OSS attack 0.75 / defence 0.96, drawn from 20/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 55% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 22%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 46%, FC OSS 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
FC OSS's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PEC Zwolle arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm. FC OSS (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.