PEC Zwolle 5-2 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this PEC Zwolle vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PEC Zwolle host FC Eindhoven at MAC³PARK Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 11 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PEC Zwolle — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at MAC³PARK Stadion, PEC Zwolle have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Eindhoven have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — PEC Zwolle at 1.70 PPG versus FC Eindhoven's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. PEC Zwolle register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, FC Eindhoven in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
PEC Zwolle in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
FC Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 46% versus FC Eindhoven 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 46% | FC Eindhoven 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.22 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.927 / defence 1.106 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.795 / defence 0.794. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.376. FC Eindhoven's defence strength of 0.794 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 14 PEC Zwolle games / 52 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 36% | Draw 27% | FC Eindhoven 36%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | FC Eindhoven 2.78. The draw (27%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 27% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: PEC Zwolle 90% | FC Eindhoven 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 11 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 36% | Draw 27% | FC Eindhoven 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.22 / FC Eindhoven 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.927 / def 1.106 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.795 / def 0.794 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Draw (27%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.21
FC Eindhoven xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 11 November 2022 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs FC Eindhoven?
PEC Zwolle 5 - 2 FC Eindhoven.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs FC Eindhoven part of?
PEC Zwolle vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 36% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both PEC Zwolle and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and FC Eindhoven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PEC Zwolle and FC Eindhoven in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 0.93x the league average against FC Eindhoven's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
36%
2.74
27%
3.64
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.43
1.21
FC Eindhoven xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
11%
9.19
11%
9.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.7 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.21 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PEC Zwolle's recent record stands at 16W 8D 24L from 48 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Eindhoven, meanwhile, have gone 25W 13D 10L across 48 games — 1.83 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Eindhoven by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over PEC Zwolle heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, PEC Zwolle have managed 6W 7D 11L from 24 games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Eindhoven's away record stands at 11W 7D 6L across 24 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.77 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 16W 8D 24L in their last 48 games (1.17 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 25W 13D 10L in their last 48 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or FC Eindhoven away?
FC Eindhoven's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.04 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.67 PPG.
Have PEC Zwolle or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
PEC Zwolle have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PEC Zwolle and FC Eindhoven runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
PEC Zwolle
0
Draws
1
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and FC Eindhoven?
From 2 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 1, FC Eindhoven have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2023, when FC Eindhoven 4-2 PEC Zwolle.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 62%, FC Eindhoven 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (PEC Zwolle) and 42% (FC Eindhoven).
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven in 33%; PEC Zwolle have failed to score in 29% of games; FC Eindhoven in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 46% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 42% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PEC Zwolle run riot with a 5-2 hammering of FC Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat FC Eindhoven 5-2 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.22 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.21 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. PEC Zwolle beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.93 / defence 1.11 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.80 / defence 0.79, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 36% | Draw 27% | FC Eindhoven 36%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 46%, FC Eindhoven 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with PEC Zwolle winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.