PEC Zwolle 13-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PEC Zwolle at 76% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PEC Zwolle vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
PEC Zwolle and Den Bosch meet at MAC³PARK Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Friday 3 March 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
PEC Zwolle's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, PEC Zwolle have posted 7W 1D 2L at MAC³PARK Stadion — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Den Bosch (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Den Bosch have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. PEC Zwolle's 2.20 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Den Bosch's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — PEC Zwolle register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Den Bosch in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: PEC Zwolle 1W, Den Bosch 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2022, ended 2–1 with PEC Zwolle winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
PEC Zwolle half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Den Bosch half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 48% versus Den Bosch 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 50% | Den Bosch 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 2.96 xG and Den Bosch 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 1.289 / defence 1.017 | Den Bosch attack 0.832 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.742 / away 1.237. PEC Zwolle carry an above-average attack strength of 1.289 — their λ of 2.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Den Bosch bring a strong defensive rating of 1.316 — this is suppressing PEC Zwolle's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 PEC Zwolle games / 64 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 76% | Draw 14% | Den Bosch 10%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 1.32 | Draw 7.14 | Den Bosch 10.00. The model has a clear lean to PEC Zwolle (76%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 4.00. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.00 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.96 / 1.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PEC Zwolle at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 70% | Den Bosch 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 3 Mar 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 76% | Draw 14% | Den Bosch 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 62% | xG PEC Zwolle 2.96 / Den Bosch 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 1.289 / def 1.017 | Den Bosch attack 0.832 / def 1.316 | league avg home 1.742 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.96
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Den Bosch xG
62%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Den Bosch kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 March 2023 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Den Bosch?
PEC Zwolle 13 - 0 Den Bosch.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Den Bosch part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 76% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 10% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Den Bosch?
Record (1 meetings): PEC Zwolle 1W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 0W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Den Bosch in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 1.29x the league average against Den Bosch's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 2.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (0.83x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 26/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
76%
1.32
14%
7.30
10%
9.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.96
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
4.00
1.05
Den Bosch xG
1.32
76%
Home win
7.30
14%
Draw
9.69
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
5%
19.20
Win to Nil
27%
3.75
1%
186.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 2.96 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.05 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 4.00.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Den Bosch?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PEC Zwolle's recent record stands at 25W 9D 26L from 60 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 20W 8D 32L across 60 games — 1.13 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for PEC Zwolle against 1.13 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, PEC Zwolle have managed 12W 7D 10L from 29 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 5W 5D 19L across 29 trips, a 0.69 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Den Bosch's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PEC Zwolle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.23 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 25W 9D 26L in their last 60 games (1.40 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 20W 8D 32L in their last 60 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Den Bosch away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.48 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
PEC Zwolle
0
Draws
0
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Den Bosch?
From 2 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 2, Den Bosch have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2023, when PEC Zwolle 13-0 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Den Bosch?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 66%, Den Bosch 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (PEC Zwolle) and 62% (Den Bosch). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of PEC Zwolle's games and 55% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 62% of Den Bosch's.
Do PEC Zwolle and Den Bosch tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PEC Zwolle run riot with a 13-0 hammering of Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Den Bosch 13-0 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 2.96 xG and Den Bosch 1.05 xG, a combined 4.00. The scoreboard read 13-0 for 13 actual goals. PEC Zwolle beat their projection by 10.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Den Bosch landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 1.29 / defence 1.02 against Den Bosch attack 0.83 / defence 1.32, drawn from 26/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 76% | Draw 14% | Den Bosch 10%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 76%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 13, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 50%, Den Bosch 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Den Bosch's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.40 PPG, Den Bosch 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 13 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 13 against a 2.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.