NAC Breda 1-2 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees VVV Venlo travel to Rat Verlegh Stadion to take on NAC Breda. The game is scheduled for Friday 30 September 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, NAC Breda stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, NAC Breda have posted 6W 2D 2L at Rat Verlegh Stadion — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Rat Verlegh Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — NAC Breda are significantly better at Rat Verlegh Stadion than their overall form suggests.
VVV Venlo — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VVV Venlo's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: NAC Breda 1.40 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for NAC Breda, 0 for VVV Venlo and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2022, ended 3–1 with NAC Breda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
NAC Breda trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
VVV Venlo trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 52% versus VVV Venlo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 54% | VVV Venlo 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.93 xG and VVV Venlo 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.949 / defence 0.751 | VVV Venlo attack 1.216 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.373. VVV Venlo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing NAC Breda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. VVV Venlo have an above-average attack strength of 1.216 — the away xG of 1.25 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. NAC Breda's defence rating of 0.751 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 NAC Breda games / 46 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 53% | Draw 23% | VVV Venlo 24%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | VVV Venlo 4.17. NAC Breda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates NAC Breda as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 50% | VVV Venlo 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 30 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 53% | Draw 23% | VVV Venlo 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG NAC Breda 1.93 / VVV Venlo 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.949 / def 0.751 | VVV Venlo attack 1.216 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.25
VVV Venlo xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo kick off?
NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 September 2022 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo?
NAC Breda 1 - 2 VVV Venlo.
Where is NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo part of?
NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 53% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both NAC Breda and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and VVV Venlo?
Record (2 meetings): NAC Breda 1W | Draws 1 | VVV Venlo 0W.
What form are NAC Breda and VVV Venlo in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. VVV Venlo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 0.95x the league average against VVV Venlo's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VVV Venlo's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
53%
1.90
23%
4.27
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.19
1.25
VVV Venlo xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
14%
6.92
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
3%
28.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.25 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NAC Breda's recent record stands at 20W 11D 15L from 46 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VVV Venlo, meanwhile, have gone 18W 8D 20L across 46 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 1.54 PPG, VVV Venlo on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, NAC Breda have managed 12W 7D 3L from 22 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — NAC Breda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
VVV Venlo's away record stands at 9W 2D 11L across 22 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
NAC Breda are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.39 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
VVV Venlo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 20W 11D 15L in their last 46 games (1.54 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 18W 8D 20L in their last 46 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or VVV Venlo away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.95 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.32 PPG.
Have NAC Breda or VVV Venlo been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, VVV Venlo in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NAC Breda and VVV Venlo runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
NAC Breda's record when hosting VVV Venlo specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
NAC Breda
1
Draws
2
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and VVV Venlo?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 3, VVV Venlo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2024, when NAC Breda 1-0 VVV Venlo.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and VVV Venlo?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 50%, VVV Venlo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (NAC Breda) and 68% (VVV Venlo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; VVV Venlo in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play VVV Venlo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 50% of VVV Venlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of NAC Breda's matches and 68% of VVV Venlo's.
Do NAC Breda and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VVV Venlo defy the odds to beat NAC Breda 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VVV Venlo beat NAC Breda 1-2 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.93 xG and VVV Venlo 1.25 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. NAC Breda fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.95 / defence 0.75 against VVV Venlo attack 1.22 / defence 1.21, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 53% | Draw 23% | VVV Venlo 24%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a VVV Venlo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 54%, VVV Venlo 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.54 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VVV Venlo win broke the near-deadlock. NAC Breda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.