NAC Breda 2-2 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Telstar at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs Telstar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Telstar make the trip to Rat Verlegh Stadion to face NAC Breda in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Friday 13 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
NAC Breda have collected 1.00 PPG across 1 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Telstar's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Telstar have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for NAC Breda against 1.00 for Telstar. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — NAC Breda register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Telstar in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 0.96 xG and Telstar 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.982 / defence 1.150 | Telstar attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.853 / away 1.212. Data: 1 NAC Breda games / 1 Telstar games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 27% | Draw 34% | Telstar 38%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 3.70 | Draw 2.94 | Telstar 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Telstar are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Telstar if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 13 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 27% | Draw 34% | Telstar 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG NAC Breda 0.96 / Telstar 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.982 / def 1.150 | Telstar attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.853 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Telstar (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Telstar xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Telstar kick off?
NAC Breda vs Telstar kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 August 2021 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Telstar?
NAC Breda 2 - 2 Telstar.
Where is NAC Breda vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Telstar part of?
NAC Breda vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 27% chance of winning, Telstar a 38% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Telstar the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both NAC Breda and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Telstar?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are NAC Breda and Telstar in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D. Telstar (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 0.98x the league average against Telstar's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Telstar's attack (0.85x) against NAC Breda's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Telstar Win
27%
3.68
34%
2.91
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.15
1.19
Telstar xG
3.68
27%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
8%
12.02
15%
6.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 13.8 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.19 for Telstar, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Telstar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 1 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Telstar's form line: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D. It's still early in the season for Telstar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for NAC Breda against 1.00 for Telstar. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NAC Breda are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. NAC Breda's scoring rate against Telstar's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Telstar in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Early Season
Telstar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Telstar in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Telstar have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Telstar have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 1-4 on 14 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Telstar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
3
Draws
3
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Telstar?
From 8 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 2, Telstar have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Telstar 3-0 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Telstar?
Telstar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Telstar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of NAC Breda's games and 100% of Telstar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of NAC Breda's recent games and 0% of Telstar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NAC Breda and Telstar tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Telstar in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda and Telstar share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda and Telstar finished level at 2-2 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 0.96 xG and Telstar 1.19 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. NAC Breda beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Telstar outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Telstar attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 27% | Draw 34% | Telstar 38%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 100%, Telstar 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.00 PPG, Telstar 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Telstar scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.