NAC Breda 0-2 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PEC Zwolle at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs PEC Zwolle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PEC Zwolle make the trip to Rat Verlegh Stadion to face NAC Breda in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 November 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
NAC Breda have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda at Rat Verlegh Stadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — NAC Breda are significantly better at Rat Verlegh Stadion than their overall form suggests.
PEC Zwolle (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle away from home this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, PEC Zwolle are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
NAC Breda half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
PEC Zwolle half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 57% versus PEC Zwolle 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 59% | PEC Zwolle 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.23 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.866 / defence 0.957 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.431 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.338. PEC Zwolle have an above-average attack strength of 1.431 — the away xG of 1.83 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 NAC Breda games / 15 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 26% | Draw 23% | PEC Zwolle 51%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 3.85 | Draw 4.35 | PEC Zwolle 1.96. PEC Zwolle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.23 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PEC Zwolle at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: NAC Breda 70% | PEC Zwolle 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Nov 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 26% | Draw 23% | PEC Zwolle 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG NAC Breda 1.23 / PEC Zwolle 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.866 / def 0.957 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.431 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.665 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.83
PEC Zwolle xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
NAC Breda vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 19 November 2022 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs PEC Zwolle?
NAC Breda 0 - 2 PEC Zwolle.
Where is NAC Breda vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs PEC Zwolle part of?
NAC Breda vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 26% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 51% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both NAC Breda and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and PEC Zwolle?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are NAC Breda and PEC Zwolle in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 0.87x the league average against PEC Zwolle's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (1.43x) against NAC Breda's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from 53/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
26%
3.89
23%
4.37
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.07
1.83
PEC Zwolle xG
3.89
26%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
16%
6.25
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
4%
24.29
15%
6.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.5 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.83 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 20W 11D 18L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle's form line: 17W 8D 24L from 49 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for NAC Breda against 1.20 for PEC Zwolle. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.83 PPG from 24 outings (12W 8D 4L).
On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 10W 1D 13L from 24 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
NAC Breda are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.31 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 20W 11D 18L in their last 49 games (1.45 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 17W 8D 24L in their last 49 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or PEC Zwolle away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.83 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 1.29 PPG.
Have NAC Breda or PEC Zwolle been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, PEC Zwolle in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
NAC Breda
1
Draws
4
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and PEC Zwolle?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 1, PEC Zwolle have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when PEC Zwolle 2-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 54%, PEC Zwolle 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (NAC Breda) and 50% (PEC Zwolle).
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; PEC Zwolle in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play PEC Zwolle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 29% of PEC Zwolle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NAC Breda vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of NAC Breda's recent games and 50% of PEC Zwolle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NAC Breda and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PEC Zwolle cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat NAC Breda 0-2 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.23 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.83 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. NAC Breda fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.87 / defence 0.96 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.43 / defence 0.86, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 26% | Draw 23% | PEC Zwolle 51%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 59%, PEC Zwolle 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.45 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.