NAC Breda 2-1 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong PSV U21 make the trip to Rat Verlegh Stadion to face NAC Breda in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Friday 6 January 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
NAC Breda (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Rat Verlegh Stadion this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jong PSV U21 have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Jong PSV U21 arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Jong PSV U21 in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for NAC Breda, 0 for Jong PSV U21 and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2022, ended 3–1 with NAC Breda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Jong PSV U21 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 54% versus Jong PSV U21 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 57% | Jong PSV U21 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.33 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.759 / defence 0.961 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.227 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.355. NAC Breda's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Jong PSV U21 have an above-average attack strength of 1.227 — the away xG of 1.60 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 NAC Breda games / 56 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 32% | Draw 24% | Jong PSV U21 44%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | Jong PSV U21 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong PSV U21 are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 60% | Jong PSV U21 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 6 Jan 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 32% | Draw 24% | Jong PSV U21 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG NAC Breda 1.33 / Jong PSV U21 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.759 / def 0.961 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.227 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Jong PSV U21 xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 January 2023 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21?
NAC Breda 2 - 1 Jong PSV U21.
Where is NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 32% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21?
Record (2 meetings): NAC Breda 1W | Draws 1 | Jong PSV U21 0W.
What form are NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21 in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from NAC Breda's attack rating (0.76) and Jong PSV U21's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong PSV U21's attack (1.23x) against NAC Breda's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
32%
3.14
24%
4.10
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.93
1.60
Jong PSV U21 xG
3.14
32%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
20%
4.94
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
6%
15.53
12%
8.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.60 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 22W 12D 22L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong PSV U21's form line: 17W 17D 22L from 56 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for NAC Breda against 1.21 for Jong PSV U21. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.68 PPG from 28 outings (13W 8D 7L).
On the road, Jong PSV U21 have gone 6W 10D 12L from 28 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NAC Breda are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.62 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 64%.
Last 56 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
Jong PSV U21
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 22W 12D 22L in their last 56 games (1.39 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 17W 17D 22L in their last 56 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.68 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 1.00 PPG.
Have NAC Breda or Jong PSV U21 been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Jong PSV U21 in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: NAC Breda have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 0-5 on 4 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Jong PSV U21 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
NAC Breda
1
Draws
0
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 5, Jong PSV U21 have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when NAC Breda 2-0 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 50%, Jong PSV U21 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (NAC Breda) and 57% (Jong PSV U21).
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of NAC Breda's games and 75% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of NAC Breda's recent games and 57% of Jong PSV U21's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as NAC Breda defy the odds to beat Jong PSV U21 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Jong PSV U21 2-1 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.33 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.60 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.76 / defence 0.96 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.23 / defence 1.09, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 32% | Draw 24% | Jong PSV U21 44%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual NAC Breda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 57%, Jong PSV U21 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.39 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.