NAC Breda 5-1 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Jong AZ travel to Rat Verlegh Stadion to take on NAC Breda. The game is scheduled for Friday 27 January 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, NAC Breda have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, NAC Breda have posted 4W 2D 4L at Rat Verlegh Stadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jong AZ — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (NAC Breda) versus 1.60 (Jong AZ). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for NAC Breda, 1 for Jong AZ and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2022, ended 0–4 with Jong AZ winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 56% versus Jong AZ 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 59% | Jong AZ 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.20 xG and Jong AZ 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.853 / defence 0.937 | Jong AZ attack 0.982 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.344. Data: 59 NAC Breda games / 59 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 35% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 37%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Jong AZ 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong AZ are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: NAC Breda 60% | Jong AZ 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 27 Jan 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 35% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG NAC Breda 1.20 / Jong AZ 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.853 / def 0.937 | Jong AZ attack 0.982 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Jong AZ xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Jong AZ kick off?
NAC Breda vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 January 2023 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Jong AZ?
NAC Breda 5 - 1 Jong AZ.
Where is NAC Breda vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Jong AZ part of?
NAC Breda vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 35% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both NAC Breda and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Jong AZ?
Record (3 meetings): NAC Breda 2W | Draws 0 | Jong AZ 1W.
What form are NAC Breda and Jong AZ in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 0.85x the league average against Jong AZ's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
35%
2.83
27%
3.64
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.43
1.24
Jong AZ xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
10%
9.77
11%
8.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.9 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.24 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 24W 13D 22L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ's form line: 21W 11D 27L from 59 games, 1.25 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-D. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 1.44 PPG, Jong AZ on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.72 PPG from 29 outings (14W 8D 7L).
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 9W 4D 16L from 29 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
NAC Breda are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.24 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 24W 13D 22L in their last 59 games (1.44 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 21W 11D 27L in their last 59 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Jong AZ away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.72 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
NAC Breda have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2022, when Jong AZ won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
NAC Breda
0
Draws
1
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Jong AZ?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 5, Jong AZ have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2024, when Jong AZ 2-3 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Jong AZ?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 52%, Jong AZ 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (NAC Breda) and 52% (Jong AZ).
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Jong AZ in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Jong AZ?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 41% of Jong AZ's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NAC Breda vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of NAC Breda's recent games and 52% of Jong AZ's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NAC Breda and Jong AZ tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant NAC Breda run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Jong AZ.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Jong AZ 5-1 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.20 xG and Jong AZ 1.24 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. NAC Breda beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.85 / defence 0.94 against Jong AZ attack 0.98 / defence 0.91, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 35% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 37%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual NAC Breda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 59%, Jong AZ 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.44 PPG, Jong AZ 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm. Jong AZ (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.