NAC Breda 1-0 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 56%, yet in-form Jong AZ provide a compelling counter-argument — this NAC Breda vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Jong AZ travel to Rat Verlegh Stadion to take on NAC Breda. The game is scheduled for Friday 15 October 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, NAC Breda have gone 2W 3D 4L from 9 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.89 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, NAC Breda have posted 2W 1D 1L at Rat Verlegh Stadion — 1.75 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.75 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — NAC Breda are significantly better at Rat Verlegh Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Jong AZ — All Games: 6W 0D 3L from 9 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.22 per game is modest, conceding 0.89 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ's away record: 2W 0D 2L from 4 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Jong AZ's 2.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of NAC Breda's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 56% versus Jong AZ 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 67% | Jong AZ 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.86 xG and Jong AZ 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 1.323 / defence 1.066 | Jong AZ attack 0.716 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.376. NAC Breda carry an above-average attack strength of 1.323 — their λ of 1.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 9 NAC Breda games / 9 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 56% | Draw 23% | Jong AZ 21%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Jong AZ 4.76. The model has a clear lean to NAC Breda (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, NAC Breda are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jong AZ (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 75% | Jong AZ 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 15 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 56% | Draw 23% | Jong AZ 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG NAC Breda 1.86 / Jong AZ 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 1.323 / def 1.066 | Jong AZ attack 0.716 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Jong AZ xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Jong AZ kick off?
NAC Breda vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 October 2021 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Jong AZ?
NAC Breda 1 - 0 Jong AZ.
Where is NAC Breda vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Jong AZ part of?
NAC Breda vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 56% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both NAC Breda and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Jong AZ?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are NAC Breda and Jong AZ in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 2W-3D-4L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.89 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Jong AZ (all comps): 6W-0D-3L in 9 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 0.89 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 1.32x the league average against Jong AZ's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
56%
1.77
23%
4.44
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.92
1.05
Jong AZ xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
15%
6.46
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
3%
30.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.6 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.05 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Jong AZ?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 2W 3D 4L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ's form line: 6W 0D 3L from 9 games, 2.00 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Jong AZ are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against NAC Breda.
Venue Form
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — NAC Breda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong AZ's season.
Goals in Recent Form
NAC Breda are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.22 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 games (1.00 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 6W 0D 3L in their last 9 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Jong AZ away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.75 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
NAC Breda have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2022, when Jong AZ won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
NAC Breda
0
Draws
1
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Jong AZ?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 5, Jong AZ have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2024, when Jong AZ 2-3 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Jong AZ?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jong AZ see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 75%, Jong AZ 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for NAC Breda and 50% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of NAC Breda's games and 50% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of NAC Breda's matches and 50% of Jong AZ's.
Do NAC Breda and Jong AZ tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as NAC Breda edge out Jong AZ 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Jong AZ 1-0 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.86 xG and Jong AZ 1.05 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. NAC Breda fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Jong AZ landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 1.32 / defence 1.07 against Jong AZ attack 0.72 / defence 1.06, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 56% | Draw 23% | Jong AZ 21%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 67%, Jong AZ 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong AZ's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with NAC Breda winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.