NAC Breda 2-6 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates NAC Breda at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rat Verlegh Stadion plays host to NAC Breda versus Jong Ajax in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Monday 13 March 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
NAC Breda's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
NAC Breda's home record at Rat Verlegh Stadion: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Rat Verlegh Stadion this season.
Jong Ajax have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Jong Ajax have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in NAC Breda's favour (2.20 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — NAC Breda register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Jong Ajax in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: NAC Breda 0W, Jong Ajax 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2022, ended 1–3 with Jong Ajax winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Jong Ajax goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 59% and Jong Ajax 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (NAC Breda 62% | Jong Ajax 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 2.97 xG and Jong Ajax 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 1.202 / defence 0.898 | Jong Ajax attack 0.984 / defence 1.374. League average goals — home 1.799 / away 1.281. Jong Ajax bring a strong defensive rating of 1.374 — this is suppressing NAC Breda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 NAC Breda games / 66 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 75% | Draw 14% | Jong Ajax 11%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 1.33 | Draw 7.14 | Jong Ajax 9.09. The model has a clear lean to NAC Breda (75%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 4.10. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.10 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.97 / 1.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
Jong Ajax lead the H2H ledger, but NAC Breda carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is NAC Breda at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 70% | Jong Ajax 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 13 Mar 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 75% | Draw 14% | Jong Ajax 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 64% | xG NAC Breda 2.97 / Jong Ajax 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 1.202 / def 0.898 | Jong Ajax attack 0.984 / def 1.374 | league avg home 1.799 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.97
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Jong Ajax xG
64%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax kick off?
NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 13 March 2023 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax?
NAC Breda 2 - 6 Jong Ajax.
Where is NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax part of?
NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 75% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 11% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both NAC Breda and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Jong Ajax?
Record (3 meetings): NAC Breda 0W | Draws 1 | Jong Ajax 2W.
What form are NAC Breda and Jong Ajax in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Jong Ajax (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
NAC Breda's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Jong Ajax's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.97. Flip it around — Jong Ajax's attack (0.98x) against NAC Breda's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.3%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
75%
1.34
14%
7.12
11%
8.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
2 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.97
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
4.10
1.13
Jong Ajax xG
1.34
75%
Home win
7.12
14%
Draw
8.78
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
5%
19.51
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
1%
171.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 2.97 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.13 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 4.10.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
NAC Breda come into this having played 66 games, going 29W 13D 24L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Jong Ajax sit at 1.38 PPG from 66 outings (24W 19D 23L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for NAC Breda against 1.38 for Jong Ajax. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
NAC Breda's home form reads 18W 8D 7L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong Ajax have taken 1.03 points per game from 33 outings (8W 10D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
NAC Breda are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 1.92 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax in 79%.
Last 66 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Current Season
Jong Ajax
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 29W 13D 24L in their last 66 games (1.52 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 24W 19D 23L in their last 66 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Jong Ajax away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.88 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong Ajax won 2-6 on 13 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
NAC Breda
2
Draws
3
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Jong Ajax?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 1, Jong Ajax have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2024, when Jong Ajax 0-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Jong Ajax?
Jong Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 54% for NAC Breda, 76% for Jong Ajax — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (NAC Breda) and 64% (Jong Ajax). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of NAC Breda's games and 76% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of NAC Breda's matches and 64% of Jong Ajax's.
Do NAC Breda and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong Ajax run riot with a 2-6 hammering of NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax beat NAC Breda 2-6 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 2.97 xG and Jong Ajax 1.13 xG, a combined 4.10. The scoreboard read 2-6 for 8 actual goals. NAC Breda fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Jong Ajax outscored their 1.13 projection by 4.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 1.20 / defence 0.90 against Jong Ajax attack 0.98 / defence 1.37, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 75% | Draw 14% | Jong Ajax 11%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 75%. Instead the game produced a Jong Ajax win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 62%, Jong Ajax 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.52 PPG, Jong Ajax 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Ajax win broke the near-deadlock. NAC Breda (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.