NAC Breda 0-0 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NAC Breda at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rat Verlegh Stadion plays host to NAC Breda versus Jong Ajax in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Friday 1 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
NAC Breda's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
NAC Breda's home record at Rat Verlegh Stadion: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
Jong Ajax have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Jong Ajax have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in NAC Breda's favour (2.00 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: NAC Breda 0W, Jong Ajax 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 9.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2021, ended 3–6 with Jong Ajax winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 9.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Jong Ajax goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 45% and Jong Ajax 81% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 52% | Jong Ajax 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.93 xG and Jong Ajax 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 1.033 / defence 0.759 | Jong Ajax attack 1.021 / defence 1.475. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.435. Jong Ajax bring a strong defensive rating of 1.475 — this is suppressing NAC Breda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. NAC Breda's defence rating of 0.759 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 31 NAC Breda games / 31 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 56% | Draw 23% | Jong Ajax 21%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Jong Ajax 4.76. The model has a clear lean to NAC Breda (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NAC Breda at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 40% | Jong Ajax 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 56% | Draw 23% | Jong Ajax 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG NAC Breda 1.93 / Jong Ajax 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 1.033 / def 0.759 | Jong Ajax attack 1.021 / def 1.475 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Jong Ajax xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax kick off?
NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 April 2022 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax?
NAC Breda 0 - 0 Jong Ajax.
Where is NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax part of?
NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 56% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both NAC Breda and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Jong Ajax?
Record (1 meetings): NAC Breda 0W | Draws 0 | Jong Ajax 1W.
What form are NAC Breda and Jong Ajax in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Jong Ajax (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
NAC Breda's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Jong Ajax's defensive record (1.48x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. Flip it around — Jong Ajax's attack (1.02x) against NAC Breda's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
56%
1.79
23%
4.35
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.04
1.11
Jong Ajax xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
15%
6.86
Win to Nil
18%
5.44
3%
32.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.11 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
NAC Breda come into this having played 31 games, going 13W 9D 9L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Jong Ajax sit at 1.74 PPG from 31 outings (16W 6D 9L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for NAC Breda against 1.74 for Jong Ajax. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
NAC Breda's home form reads 8W 6D 1L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — NAC Breda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Jong Ajax have taken 1.40 points per game from 15 outings (6W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
NAC Breda are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 2.19 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax in 81%.
Defensively: NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Current Season
Jong Ajax
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 13W 9D 9L in their last 31 games (1.55 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 16W 6D 9L in their last 31 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Jong Ajax away?
NAC Breda's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 2.00 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 1.40 PPG.
Have NAC Breda or Jong Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Jong Ajax in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong Ajax won 2-6 on 13 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
NAC Breda
2
Draws
3
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Jong Ajax?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 1, Jong Ajax have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2024, when Jong Ajax 0-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Jong Ajax?
Jong Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 47%, Jong Ajax 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (NAC Breda) and 67% (Jong Ajax). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of NAC Breda's games and 80% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of NAC Breda's matches and 67% of Jong Ajax's.
Do NAC Breda and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at NAC Breda's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 33, as NAC Breda and Jong Ajax drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.93 xG and Jong Ajax 1.11 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. NAC Breda fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Jong Ajax landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 1.03 / defence 0.76 against Jong Ajax attack 1.02 / defence 1.48, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 56% | Draw 23% | Jong Ajax 21%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 52%, Jong Ajax 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.55 PPG, Jong Ajax 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.