NAC Breda 1-0 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC OSS make the trip to Rat Verlegh Stadion to face NAC Breda in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Friday 19 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
NAC Breda (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Rat Verlegh Stadion, NAC Breda have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Rat Verlegh Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — NAC Breda are significantly better at Rat Verlegh Stadion than their overall form suggests.
FC OSS have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC OSS's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for NAC Breda, 1.30 for FC OSS — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — NAC Breda lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2022, ended 3–0 with NAC Breda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
NAC Breda half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
FC OSS half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 48% versus FC OSS 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 55% | FC OSS 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.83 xG and FC OSS 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.972 / defence 0.757 | FC OSS attack 0.817 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.386. FC OSS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing NAC Breda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. NAC Breda's defence rating of 0.757 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 NAC Breda games / 40 FC OSS games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 60% | Draw 23% | FC OSS 17%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | FC OSS 5.88. The model has a clear lean to NAC Breda (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NAC Breda at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: NAC Breda 50% | FC OSS 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 60% | Draw 23% | FC OSS 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 48% | xG NAC Breda 1.83 / FC OSS 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.972 / def 0.757 | FC OSS attack 0.817 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
0.86
FC OSS xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs FC OSS kick off?
NAC Breda vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 August 2022 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs FC OSS?
NAC Breda 1 - 0 FC OSS.
Where is NAC Breda vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs FC OSS part of?
NAC Breda vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 60% chance of winning, FC OSS a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both NAC Breda and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and FC OSS?
Record (2 meetings): NAC Breda 2W | Draws 0 | FC OSS 0W.
What form are NAC Breda and FC OSS in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. FC OSS (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 0.97x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC OSS's attack (0.82x) against NAC Breda's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
60%
1.66
23%
4.44
17%
5.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.68
0.86
FC OSS xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
5.81
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
16%
6.21
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
3%
36.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 10.7 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for NAC Breda and 0.86 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs FC OSS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
NAC Breda's recent record stands at 17W 9D 14L from 40 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC OSS, meanwhile, have gone 12W 8D 20L across 40 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC OSS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for NAC Breda against 1.10 for FC OSS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, NAC Breda have managed 11W 6D 3L from 20 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — NAC Breda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FC OSS's away record stands at 5W 3D 12L across 20 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NAC Breda are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.27 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC OSS in 60%.
Defensively: NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Early Season
FC OSS
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and FC OSS in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 17W 9D 14L in their last 40 games (1.50 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 12W 8D 20L in their last 40 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or FC OSS away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.95 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.90 PPG.
Have NAC Breda or FC OSS been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, FC OSS in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 3-0 on 29 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC OSS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
NAC Breda
1
Draws
0
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and FC OSS?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 5, FC OSS have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when FC OSS 1-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and FC OSS?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 45%, FC OSS 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (NAC Breda) and 65% (FC OSS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; FC OSS in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 55% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NAC Breda vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of NAC Breda's matches and 65% of FC OSS's.
Do NAC Breda and FC OSS tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as NAC Breda edge out FC OSS 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat FC OSS 1-0 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.83 xG and FC OSS 0.86 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. NAC Breda fell 0.8 short of their projected output. FC OSS landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.97 / defence 0.76 against FC OSS attack 0.82 / defence 1.22, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 60% | Draw 23% | FC OSS 17%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 55%, FC OSS 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC OSS's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.50 PPG, FC OSS 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.