NAC Breda 3-0 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC OSS make the trip to Rat Verlegh Stadion to face NAC Breda in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37. The match kicks off on Friday 29 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
NAC Breda (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Rat Verlegh Stadion, NAC Breda have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
FC OSS have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
FC OSS's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in NAC Breda's favour (1.90 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — NAC Breda lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 3–1 with NAC Breda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
NAC Breda half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
FC OSS half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 47% versus FC OSS 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 53% | FC OSS 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.53 xG and FC OSS 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.935 / defence 0.811 | FC OSS attack 0.795 / defence 1.295. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.492. FC OSS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.295 — this is suppressing NAC Breda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 NAC Breda games / 36 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 50% | Draw 26% | FC OSS 24%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | FC OSS 4.17. NAC Breda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NAC Breda at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NAC Breda if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: NAC Breda 50% | FC OSS 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 29 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 50% | Draw 26% | FC OSS 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG NAC Breda 1.53 / FC OSS 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.935 / def 0.811 | FC OSS attack 0.795 / def 1.295 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.492 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
0.96
FC OSS xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs FC OSS kick off?
NAC Breda vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 April 2022 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs FC OSS?
NAC Breda 3 - 0 FC OSS.
Where is NAC Breda vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs FC OSS part of?
NAC Breda vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 50% chance of winning, FC OSS a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both NAC Breda and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and FC OSS?
Record (1 meetings): NAC Breda 1W | Draws 0 | FC OSS 0W.
What form are NAC Breda and FC OSS in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. FC OSS (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 0.94x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC OSS's attack (0.80x) against NAC Breda's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
50%
1.99
26%
3.83
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.49
0.96
FC OSS xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
5%
19.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.2 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for NAC Breda and 0.96 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
NAC Breda's recent record stands at 15W 10D 11L from 36 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five.
FC OSS, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 17L across 36 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for NAC Breda against 1.14 for FC OSS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, NAC Breda have managed 9W 7D 2L from 18 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC OSS's away record stands at 5W 3D 10L across 18 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NAC Breda are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.33 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC OSS in 67%.
Defensively: NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Current Season
FC OSS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and FC OSS in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 15W 10D 11L in their last 36 games (1.53 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 11W 8D 17L in their last 36 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or FC OSS away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.89 PPG; FC OSS away: 1.00 PPG.
Have NAC Breda or FC OSS been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, FC OSS in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 3-0 on 29 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC OSS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
NAC Breda
1
Draws
0
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and FC OSS?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 5, FC OSS have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when FC OSS 1-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and FC OSS?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 50%, FC OSS 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (NAC Breda) and 61% (FC OSS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; FC OSS in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play FC OSS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of NAC Breda's games and 61% of FC OSS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of NAC Breda's matches and 61% of FC OSS's.
Do NAC Breda and FC OSS tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant NAC Breda run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat FC OSS 3-0 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 37, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.53 xG and FC OSS 0.96 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. NAC Breda beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC OSS landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.94 / defence 0.81 against FC OSS attack 0.80 / defence 1.29, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 50% | Draw 26% | FC OSS 24%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 53%, FC OSS 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC OSS's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.53 PPG, FC OSS 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.