NAC Breda 1-1 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
NAC Breda host FC Eindhoven at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 2 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
NAC Breda — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NAC Breda's home record at Rat Verlegh Stadion: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Rat Verlegh Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — NAC Breda are significantly better at Rat Verlegh Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Eindhoven stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC Eindhoven have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: NAC Breda 1.60 PPG, FC Eindhoven 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, NAC Breda have won 0, FC Eindhoven 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
NAC Breda trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
FC Eindhoven trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 50% versus FC Eindhoven 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 57% | FC Eindhoven 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.09 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.896 / defence 0.698 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.068 / defence 0.789. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.388. FC Eindhoven's defence strength of 0.789 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. NAC Breda's defence rating of 0.698 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 NAC Breda games / 42 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 37% | Draw 30% | FC Eindhoven 34%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | FC Eindhoven 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates NAC Breda as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: NAC Breda 40% | FC Eindhoven 70%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 2 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 37% | Draw 30% | FC Eindhoven 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG NAC Breda 1.09 / FC Eindhoven 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.896 / def 0.698 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.068 / def 0.789 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.03
FC Eindhoven xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 2 September 2022 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven?
NAC Breda 1 - 1 FC Eindhoven.
Where is NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven part of?
NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 37% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven?
Record (2 meetings): NAC Breda 0W | Draws 1 | FC Eindhoven 1W.
What form are NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from NAC Breda's attack rating (0.90) and FC Eindhoven's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
37%
2.73
30%
3.37
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.13
1.03
FC Eindhoven xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
13%
7.68
11%
8.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.03 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
NAC Breda come into this having played 44 games, going 19W 11D 14L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Eindhoven sit at 1.89 PPG from 44 outings (25W 8D 11L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 1.55 PPG, FC Eindhoven on 1.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
NAC Breda's home form reads 12W 7D 3L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Eindhoven have taken 1.59 points per game from 22 outings (10W 5D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
NAC Breda are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.80 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Early Season
FC Eindhoven
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 19W 11D 14L in their last 44 games (1.55 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 25W 8D 11L in their last 44 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or FC Eindhoven away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.95 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.59 PPG.
Have NAC Breda or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
NAC Breda's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
NAC Breda
3
Draws
2
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 1, FC Eindhoven have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2024, when NAC Breda 2-2 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 46%, FC Eindhoven 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (NAC Breda) and 50% (FC Eindhoven).
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; FC Eindhoven in 32%; FC Eindhoven in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 50% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of NAC Breda's recent games and 50% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven finished level at 1-1 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.09 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.03 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.90 / defence 0.70 against FC Eindhoven attack 1.07 / defence 0.79, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 37% | Draw 30% | FC Eindhoven 34%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 57%, FC Eindhoven 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.55 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.