NAC Breda 2-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NAC Breda at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rat Verlegh Stadion plays host to NAC Breda versus Den Bosch in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 13 February 2022 at 11:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
NAC Breda have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, NAC Breda have posted 4W 5D 1L at Rat Verlegh Stadion — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Rat Verlegh Stadion. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — NAC Breda are significantly better at Rat Verlegh Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Den Bosch (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. NAC Breda's 1.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Den Bosch's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for NAC Breda, 0 for Den Bosch and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2021, ended 5–0 with NAC Breda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
NAC Breda — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 46% versus Den Bosch 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 50% | Den Bosch 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.55 xG and Den Bosch 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.899 / defence 0.823 | Den Bosch attack 0.859 / defence 1.461. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.448. Den Bosch bring a strong defensive rating of 1.461 — this is suppressing NAC Breda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 NAC Breda games / 25 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 49% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 25%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Den Bosch 4.00. NAC Breda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates NAC Breda as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NAC Breda if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 50% | Den Bosch 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 49% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG NAC Breda 1.55 / Den Bosch 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.899 / def 0.823 | Den Bosch attack 0.859 / def 1.461 | league avg home 1.183 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Den Bosch xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Den Bosch kick off?
NAC Breda vs Den Bosch kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Den Bosch?
NAC Breda 2 - 0 Den Bosch.
Where is NAC Breda vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Den Bosch part of?
NAC Breda vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 49% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both NAC Breda and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Den Bosch?
Record (1 meetings): NAC Breda 1W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 0W.
What form are NAC Breda and Den Bosch in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Den Bosch (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
NAC Breda's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (1.46x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (0.86x) against NAC Breda's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 24/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
49%
2.02
26%
3.90
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.58
1.02
Den Bosch xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
18%
5.63
5%
19.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.1 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.02 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 24 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 7W 9D 8L record — L-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch's form line: 7W 2D 15L from 24 games, 0.96 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for NAC Breda against 0.96 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.75 PPG from 12 outings (5W 6D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — NAC Breda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 2W 2D 8L from 12 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
NAC Breda are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.04 scored and 1.92 conceded.
Defensively: NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 7W 9D 8L in their last 24 games (1.25 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 7W 2D 15L in their last 24 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Den Bosch away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.75 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.67 PPG.
Have NAC Breda or Den Bosch been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Den Bosch in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 0-5 on 3 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
NAC Breda
1
Draws
1
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Den Bosch?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 4, Den Bosch have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2024, when Den Bosch 2-2 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Den Bosch?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NAC Breda see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 50%, Den Bosch 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (NAC Breda) and 67% (Den Bosch). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 58% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NAC Breda vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of NAC Breda's matches and 67% of Den Bosch's.
Do NAC Breda and Den Bosch tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Den Bosch 2-0 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.55 xG and Den Bosch 1.02 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Den Bosch landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.90 / defence 0.82 against Den Bosch attack 0.86 / defence 1.46, drawn from 24/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 49% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 25%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 50%, Den Bosch 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Den Bosch's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.25 PPG, Den Bosch 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.