NAC Breda 0-1 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 36%, yet in-form Almere City FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this NAC Breda vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rat Verlegh Stadion plays host to NAC Breda versus Almere City FC in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Friday 16 December 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
NAC Breda's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's home record at Rat Verlegh Stadion: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Almere City FC (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Almere City FC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Almere City FC arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: NAC Breda 1W, Almere City FC 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with NAC Breda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Almere City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 54% versus Almere City FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 58% | Almere City FC 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.17 xG and Almere City FC 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.811 / defence 0.966 | Almere City FC attack 0.877 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.624 / away 1.364. Data: 55 NAC Breda games / 55 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 36% | Draw 28% | Almere City FC 36%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Almere City FC 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: NAC Breda 60% | Almere City FC 40%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 16 Dec 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 36% | Draw 28% | Almere City FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG NAC Breda 1.17 / Almere City FC 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.811 / def 0.966 | Almere City FC attack 0.877 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.624 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Almere City FC xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Almere City FC kick off?
NAC Breda vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 December 2022 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Almere City FC?
NAC Breda 0 - 1 Almere City FC.
Where is NAC Breda vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Almere City FC part of?
NAC Breda vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 36% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both NAC Breda and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Almere City FC?
Record (2 meetings): NAC Breda 1W | Draws 1 | Almere City FC 0W.
What form are NAC Breda and Almere City FC in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Almere City FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
NAC Breda's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (0.88x) against NAC Breda's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
36%
2.77
28%
3.54
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.32
1.16
Almere City FC xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
11%
9.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.3 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.16 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
NAC Breda come into this having played 55 games, going 22W 12D 21L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 1.27 PPG from 55 outings (20W 10D 25L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for NAC Breda against 1.27 for Almere City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
NAC Breda's home form reads 13W 8D 6L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Almere City FC have taken 1.19 points per game from 27 outings (9W 5D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NAC Breda are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.53 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 22W 12D 21L in their last 55 games (1.42 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 20W 10D 25L in their last 55 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Almere City FC away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.74 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.19 PPG.
Have NAC Breda or Almere City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Almere City FC in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
NAC Breda
2
Draws
1
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 3, Almere City FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2025, when Almere City FC 1-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Almere City FC?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 52%, Almere City FC 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (NAC Breda) and 67% (Almere City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Almere City FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of NAC Breda's games and 63% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of NAC Breda's matches and 67% of Almere City FC's.
Do NAC Breda and Almere City FC tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Almere City FC defy the odds to beat NAC Breda 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat NAC Breda 0-1 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.17 xG and Almere City FC 1.16 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. NAC Breda fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.81 / defence 0.97 against Almere City FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.89, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 36% | Draw 28% | Almere City FC 36%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Almere City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 58%, Almere City FC 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Almere City FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.42 PPG, Almere City FC 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.