NAC Breda 3-0 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ADO Den Haag at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees ADO Den Haag travel to Rat Verlegh Stadion to take on NAC Breda. The game is scheduled for Friday 27 August 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, NAC Breda stand at 0W 2D 1L from 3 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.67 PPG. Last five: D D L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, ADO Den Haag have recorded 2W 0D 1L from 3 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. ADO Den Haag have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. ADO Den Haag's 2.00 PPG return is 1.33 points per game ahead of NAC Breda's 0.67 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. NAC Breda register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, ADO Den Haag in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
NAC Breda trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
ADO Den Haag trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 67% and ADO Den Haag 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (NAC Breda 67% | ADO Den Haag 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.24 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 1.076 / defence 1.196 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.003 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.018 / away 1.621. Data: 3 NAC Breda games / 3 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 24% | Draw 22% | ADO Den Haag 54%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 4.17 | Draw 4.55 | ADO Den Haag 1.85. ADO Den Haag hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 1.95) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, ADO Den Haag are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 67% | ADO Den Haag 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 27 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 24% | Draw 22% | ADO Den Haag 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG NAC Breda 1.24 / ADO Den Haag 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 1.076 / def 1.196 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.003 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.018 / away 1.621 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.95
ADO Den Haag xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 August 2021 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag?
NAC Breda 3 - 0 ADO Den Haag.
Where is NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag part of?
NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 24% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 54% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 0W-2D-1L in 3 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 1.08x the league average against ADO Den Haag's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ADO Den Haag's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
24%
4.12
22%
4.54
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.19
1.95
ADO Den Haag xG
4.12
24%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
14%
6.99
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
3%
28.83
15%
6.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.95 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
NAC Breda's recent record stands at 0W 2D 1L from 3 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
ADO Den Haag, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 1L across 3 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours ADO Den Haag by 1.33 — a real, if not enormous, edge over NAC Breda heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
NAC Breda are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; ADO Den Haag in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Early Season
ADO Den Haag
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 games (0.67 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have NAC Breda or ADO Den Haag been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, ADO Den Haag in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2021, when NAC Breda won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting ADO Den Haag specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
NAC Breda
1
Draws
6
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag?
From 8 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 1, ADO Den Haag have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2024, when NAC Breda 2-2 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — NAC Breda at 67%, ADO Den Haag at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for NAC Breda and 67% for ADO Den Haag. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ADO Den Haag in 33%; NAC Breda have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play ADO Den Haag?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of NAC Breda's games and 67% of ADO Den Haag's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of NAC Breda's matches and 67% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant NAC Breda run riot with a 3-0 hammering of ADO Den Haag.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat ADO Den Haag 3-0 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.24 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.95 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. NAC Breda beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. ADO Den Haag landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 1.08 / defence 1.20 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.00 / defence 1.14, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 24% | Draw 22% | ADO Den Haag 54%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a NAC Breda win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 67%, ADO Den Haag 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with NAC Breda winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. NAC Breda scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. ADO Den Haag managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.