MVV 1-2 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NAC Breda at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this MVV vs NAC Breda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 29 as MVV welcome NAC Breda to De Geusselt. Kick-off is set for Friday 4 March 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, MVV have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at De Geusselt, MVV have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
NAC Breda — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. NAC Breda are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for MVV, 1 for NAC Breda and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2021, ended 0–3 with NAC Breda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
MVV trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
NAC Breda trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 48% versus NAC Breda 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (MVV 56% | NAC Breda 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 0.96 xG and NAC Breda 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 0.707 / defence 1.401 | NAC Breda attack 0.873 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.436. MVV's attack strength of 0.707 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 MVV games / 27 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 20% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 56%. Fair-value odds: MVV 5.00 | Draw 4.17 | NAC Breda 1.79. The model has a clear lean to NAC Breda (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates NAC Breda as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: MVV 50% | NAC Breda 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Friday 4 Mar 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 20% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG MVV 0.96 / NAC Breda 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 0.707 / def 1.401 | NAC Breda attack 0.873 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.76
NAC Breda xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs NAC Breda kick off?
MVV vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 4 March 2022 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs NAC Breda?
MVV 1 - 2 NAC Breda.
Where is MVV vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs NAC Breda part of?
MVV vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 20% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 56% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both MVV and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and NAC Breda?
Record (1 meetings): MVV 0W | Draws 0 | NAC Breda 1W.
What form are MVV and NAC Breda in?
MVV (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates MVV's attack at 0.71x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus MVV's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.2%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
20%
4.92
24%
4.21
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
MVV xG
Total xG
2.72
1.76
NAC Breda xG
4.92
20%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
17%
5.79
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
4%
28.48
21%
4.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 11.6 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are MVV and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for MVV and 1.76 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs NAC Breda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
MVV come into this having played 27 games, going 8W 2D 17L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 1.44 PPG from 27 outings (10W 9D 8L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of MVV — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
MVV's home form reads 4W 2D 7L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 0.92 points per game from 13 outings (3W 3D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of NAC Breda's season.
Goals in Recent Form
MVV are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.52 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: NAC Breda in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 8W 2D 17L in their last 27 games (0.96 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 10W 9D 8L in their last 27 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or NAC Breda away?
MVV's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.08 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.92 PPG.
Have MVV or NAC Breda been keeping clean sheets recently?
MVV have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, NAC Breda in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2021, when NAC Breda won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
MVV's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
MVV
0
Draws
6
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and NAC Breda?
From 8 meetings on record, MVV have won 2, NAC Breda have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did MVV and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2024, when NAC Breda 1-2 MVV.
Who has won more matches between MVV and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 54%, NAC Breda 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (MVV) and 46% (NAC Breda).
On the defensive side: NAC Breda in 31%; MVV have failed to score in 31% of games; NAC Breda in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of MVV's recent matches and 38% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is MVV vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of MVV's recent games and 46% of NAC Breda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do MVV and NAC Breda tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as NAC Breda edge out MVV 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat MVV 1-2 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 0.96 xG and NAC Breda 1.76 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.71 / defence 1.40 against NAC Breda attack 0.87 / defence 1.17, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 20% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 56%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 56%, NAC Breda 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.