MVV 1-1 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates MVV at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this MVV vs FC OSS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
MVV host FC OSS at De Geusselt in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 3 December 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, MVV have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, MVV have posted 4W 1D 4L at De Geusselt — 1.44 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC OSS — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 6L across 8 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game.
On current form, MVV have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
MVV in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
FC OSS in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 47% versus FC OSS 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (MVV 59% | FC OSS 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.39 xG and FC OSS 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 0.874 / defence 1.262 | FC OSS attack 0.586 / defence 1.315. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.487. FC OSS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.315 — this is suppressing MVV's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 MVV games / 17 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 44% | Draw 27% | FC OSS 30%. Fair-value odds: MVV 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | FC OSS 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is MVV at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on MVV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: MVV 67% | FC OSS 38%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Friday 3 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 44% | Draw 27% | FC OSS 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG MVV 1.39 / FC OSS 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 0.874 / def 1.262 | FC OSS attack 0.586 / def 1.315 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.487 • Poisson stance: MVV (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.10
FC OSS xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs FC OSS kick off?
MVV vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 December 2021 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs FC OSS?
MVV 1 - 1 FC OSS.
Where is MVV vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs FC OSS part of?
MVV vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 44% chance of winning, FC OSS a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both MVV and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and FC OSS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are MVV and FC OSS in?
MVV (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. FC OSS (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
MVV's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against FC OSS's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus MVV's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
44%
2.29
27%
3.75
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
MVV xG
Total xG
2.49
1.10
FC OSS xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
15%
6.89
7%
13.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are MVV and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for MVV and 1.10 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
MVV come into this having played 17 games, going 7W 1D 9L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC OSS sit at 0.76 PPG from 17 outings (3W 4D 10L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
MVV carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of FC OSS — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
MVV's home form reads 4W 1D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, FC OSS have taken 0.50 points per game from 8 outings (1W 1D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, MVV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
MVV are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.06 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and FC OSS in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 7W 1D 9L in their last 17 games (1.29 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 3W 4D 10L in their last 17 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or FC OSS away?
MVV's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.62 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC OSS go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2023, when MVV won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
MVV's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
MVV
2
Draws
3
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, MVV have won 5, FC OSS have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did MVV and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when MVV 0-2 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between MVV and FC OSS?
MVV have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 62%, FC OSS 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (MVV) and 50% (FC OSS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of MVV's recent matches and 38% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is MVV vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of MVV's matches and 50% of FC OSS's.
Do MVV and FC OSS tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
MVV and FC OSS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 18, as MVV and FC OSS drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.39 xG and FC OSS 1.10 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.87 / defence 1.26 against FC OSS attack 0.59 / defence 1.31, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 44% | Draw 27% | FC OSS 30%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 59%, FC OSS 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
FC OSS's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, MVV arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.76. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.