MVV 0-1 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this MVV vs Emmen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
MVV and Emmen meet at De Geusselt in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 December 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
MVV (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, MVV have posted 4W 2D 4L at De Geusselt — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Emmen's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Emmen have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Emmen are 0.90 PPG clear of MVV in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (2.00 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — MVV have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Emmen in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — MVV lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 8.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2021, ended 1–7 with Emmen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 8.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
MVV half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Emmen half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 53% versus Emmen 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (MVV 58% | Emmen 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 0.91 xG and Emmen 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 0.851 / defence 1.193 | Emmen attack 0.705 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.184 / away 1.566. Data: 19 MVV games / 19 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 26% | Draw 28% | Emmen 46%. Fair-value odds: MVV 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Emmen 2.17. Emmen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Emmen are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Emmen if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: MVV 70% | Emmen 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Friday 17 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 26% | Draw 28% | Emmen 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG MVV 0.91 / Emmen 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 0.851 / def 1.193 | Emmen attack 0.705 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.184 / away 1.566 • Poisson stance: Emmen (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Emmen xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs Emmen kick off?
MVV vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 December 2021 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Emmen?
MVV 0 - 1 Emmen.
Where is MVV vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Emmen part of?
MVV vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 26% chance of winning, Emmen a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both MVV and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Emmen?
Record (1 meetings): MVV 0W | Draws 0 | Emmen 1W.
What form are MVV and Emmen in?
MVV (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Emmen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from MVV's attack rating (0.85) and Emmen's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Emmen's attack (0.70x) against MVV's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.5%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
26%
3.87
28%
3.55
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
MVV xG
Total xG
2.23
1.32
Emmen xG
3.87
26%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
7%
14.46
19%
5.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 14.2 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are MVV and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for MVV and 1.32 for Emmen, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
MVV's recent record stands at 7W 2D 10L from 19 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen, meanwhile, have gone 11W 3D 5L across 19 games — 1.89 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Emmen by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over MVV heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, MVV have managed 4W 2D 4L from 10 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Emmen's away record stands at 5W 3D 2L across 10 trips, a 1.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
MVV are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.53 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and Emmen in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 7W 2D 10L in their last 19 games (1.21 PPG), while Emmen have gone 11W 3D 5L in their last 19 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.40 PPG; Emmen away: 1.80 PPG.
Have MVV or Emmen been keeping clean sheets recently?
MVV have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Emmen in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 7-1 on 10 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, MVV have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Emmen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
MVV
2
Draws
4
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Emmen?
From 8 meetings on record, MVV have won 2, Emmen have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did MVV and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Emmen 2-1 MVV.
Who has won more matches between MVV and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for MVV, 60% for Emmen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (MVV) and 50% (Emmen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of MVV's games and 60% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of MVV's matches and 50% of Emmen's.
Do MVV and Emmen tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Emmen in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Emmen edge out MVV 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat MVV 0-1 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 0.91 xG and Emmen 1.32 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. MVV fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.85 / defence 1.19 against Emmen attack 0.70 / defence 0.90, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 26% | Draw 28% | Emmen 46%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 58%, Emmen 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Emmen's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. MVV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Emmen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.