Jong Utrecht 0-0 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Utrecht vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Willem II travel to Stadion Galgenwaard to take on Jong Utrecht. The game is scheduled for Monday 29 August 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Utrecht have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jong Utrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong Utrecht's home record at Stadion Galgenwaard: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Willem II — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Willem II have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Willem II have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Jong Utrecht) versus 1.40 (Willem II). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Jong Utrecht trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Willem II trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 51% versus Willem II 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 62% | Willem II 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.40 xG and Willem II 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.750 / defence 1.199 | Willem II attack 0.859 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.409. Jong Utrecht's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 1.40 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 Jong Utrecht games / 3 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 36% | Draw 25% | Willem II 39%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Willem II 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. This conflicts with form data: Jong Utrecht 30% | Willem II 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Monday 29 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 36% | Draw 25% | Willem II 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.40 / Willem II 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.750 / def 1.199 | Willem II attack 0.859 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: Willem II (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Willem II xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Willem II kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 29 August 2022 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Willem II?
Jong Utrecht 0 - 0 Willem II.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Willem II part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 36% chance of winning, Willem II a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Willem II?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Willem II in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Willem II (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jong Utrecht's attack rating (0.75) and Willem II's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
36%
2.76
25%
4.00
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.85
1.45
Willem II xG
2.76
36%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
8%
11.79
10%
10.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.45 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong Utrecht's recent record stands at 10W 3D 24L from 37 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 20L across 37 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-W-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Utrecht on 0.89 PPG, Willem II on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jong Utrecht have managed 4W 0D 14L from 18 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Willem II's away record stands at 2W 3D 13L across 18 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Willem II's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 0.97 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Early Season
Willem II
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Willem II in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 10W 3D 24L in their last 37 games (0.89 PPG), while Willem II have gone 10W 7D 20L in their last 37 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Willem II away?
Jong Utrecht's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 0.67 PPG; Willem II away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 16 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2023, when Willem II won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Jong Utrecht
3
Draws
3
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 0, Willem II have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2026, when Jong Utrecht 1-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 39%, Willem II 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Jong Utrecht) and 56% (Willem II). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 56% of games; Willem II in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Willem II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 50% of Willem II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Jong Utrecht's matches and 56% of Willem II's.
Do Jong Utrecht and Willem II tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Willem II in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Jong Utrecht's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 4, as Jong Utrecht and Willem II drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.40 xG and Willem II 1.45 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jong Utrecht fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Willem II landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.75 / defence 1.20 against Willem II attack 0.86 / defence 1.17, drawn from 41/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 36% | Draw 25% | Willem II 39%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 62%, Willem II 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Willem II's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 0.89 PPG, Willem II 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.