Jong Utrecht 4-1 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Utrecht host NAC Breda at Stadion Galgenwaard in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 20 February 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Utrecht stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht at Stadion Galgenwaard this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, NAC Breda have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, NAC Breda have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour NAC Breda — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Jong Utrecht, 1 for NAC Breda and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2022, ended 1–3 with NAC Breda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Jong Utrecht in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 52% versus NAC Breda 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 55% | NAC Breda 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.06 xG and NAC Breda 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.557 / defence 0.991 | NAC Breda attack 1.163 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.684 / away 1.212. Jong Utrecht's attack strength of 0.557 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 62 Jong Utrecht games / 62 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 29% | Draw 27% | NAC Breda 45%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | NAC Breda 2.22. NAC Breda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NAC Breda at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Jong Utrecht 20% | NAC Breda 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Monday 20 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 29% | Draw 27% | NAC Breda 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.06 / NAC Breda 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.557 / def 0.991 | NAC Breda attack 1.163 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.684 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.40
NAC Breda xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 20 February 2023 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda?
Jong Utrecht 4 - 1 NAC Breda.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda part of?
Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 29% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Jong Utrecht and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and NAC Breda?
Record (3 meetings): Jong Utrecht 1W | Draws 1 | NAC Breda 1W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and NAC Breda in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jong Utrecht's attacking strength (0.56x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
29%
3.51
27%
3.73
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.46
1.40
NAC Breda xG
3.51
29%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
7%
14.19
15%
6.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 12.0 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.40 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong Utrecht come into this having played 62 games, going 15W 10D 37L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 1.47 PPG from 62 outings (26W 13D 23L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Jong Utrecht's home form reads 7W 3D 21L across 31 games on their own ground, a 0.77 PPG return.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 1.13 points per game from 31 outings (10W 5D 16L).
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.53 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 15W 10D 37L in their last 62 games (0.89 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 26W 13D 23L in their last 62 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or NAC Breda away?
NAC Breda's away record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 0.77 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Feb 2023, when Jong Utrecht won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Jong Utrecht
2
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 2, NAC Breda have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2024, when NAC Breda 3-1 Jong Utrecht.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 29%, NAC Breda 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Jong Utrecht) and 71% (NAC Breda).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 58% of games; NAC Breda in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 61% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 71% of NAC Breda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Utrecht and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong Utrecht run riot with a 4-1 hammering of NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht beat NAC Breda 4-1 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.06 xG and NAC Breda 1.40 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Jong Utrecht beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.56 / defence 0.99 against NAC Breda attack 1.16 / defence 1.13, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 29% | Draw 27% | NAC Breda 45%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Jong Utrecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 55%, NAC Breda 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Jong Utrecht winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm. NAC Breda (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.