Jong Utrecht 3-2 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Helmond Sport at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Utrecht vs Helmond Sport fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Helmond Sport make the trip to Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch to face Jong Utrecht in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Monday 7 February 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jong Utrecht have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Jong Utrecht have gone 2W 0D 8L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Helmond Sport (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helmond Sport away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.40 PPG for Jong Utrecht against 0.60 for Helmond Sport. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Jong Utrecht lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2021, ended 3–0 with Jong Utrecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Jong Utrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Helmond Sport goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 52% versus Helmond Sport 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 65% | Helmond Sport 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 0.71 xG and Helmond Sport 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.578 / defence 1.572 | Helmond Sport attack 0.596 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.128 / away 1.432. Jong Utrecht's attack strength of 0.578 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 24 Jong Utrecht games / 23 Helmond Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 20% | Draw 28% | Helmond Sport 52%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 5.00 | Draw 3.57 | Helmond Sport 1.92. Helmond Sport hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Helmond Sport at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Helmond Sport if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 40% | Helmond Sport 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Monday 7 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 20% | Draw 28% | Helmond Sport 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 37% | xG Jong Utrecht 0.71 / Helmond Sport 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.578 / def 1.572 | Helmond Sport attack 0.596 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.128 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Helmond Sport (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Helmond Sport xG
37%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Helmond Sport kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 7 February 2022 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Jong Utrecht 3 - 2 Helmond Sport.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Helmond Sport part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Helmond Sport is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 20% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 52% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Helmond Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Helmond Sport will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Helmond Sport?
Record (1 meetings): Jong Utrecht 1W | Draws 0 | Helmond Sport 0W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Helmond Sport in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Helmond Sport (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jong Utrecht's attack rating (0.58) and Helmond Sport's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 0.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Helmond Sport's attack (0.60x) against Jong Utrecht's defence (1.57x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 24/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helmond Sport Win
20%
5.07
28%
3.53
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.05
1.34
Helmond Sport xG
5.07
20%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
5%
19.39
26%
3.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 17.3 | 11.6 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.34 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong Utrecht's recent record stands at 6W 4D 13L from 23 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helmond Sport, meanwhile, have gone 5W 5D 13L across 23 games — 0.87 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Jong Utrecht against 0.87 for Helmond Sport. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Jong Utrecht have managed 3W 0D 8L from 11 games — 0.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Helmond Sport's away record stands at 2W 3D 6L across 11 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 0.87 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 6W 4D 13L in their last 23 games (0.96 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 5W 5D 13L in their last 23 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Helmond Sport away?
Jong Utrecht's home record (0.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 0.82 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Helmond Sport won 4-0 on 6 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Utrecht have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Helmond Sport — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jong Utrecht
1
Draws
4
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Helmond Sport?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 5, Helmond Sport have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Helmond Sport last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Jong Utrecht 1-0 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Helmond Sport?
Jong Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches.
Helmond Sport see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 36%, Helmond Sport 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Jong Utrecht) and 27% (Helmond Sport).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 54% of games; Helmond Sport in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Helmond Sport?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 36% of Helmond Sport's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Helmond Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 27% of Helmond Sport's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Utrecht and Helmond Sport tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Helmond Sport in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong Utrecht defy the odds to beat Helmond Sport 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht beat Helmond Sport 3-2 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 0.71 xG and Helmond Sport 1.34 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Jong Utrecht beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.58 / defence 1.57 against Helmond Sport attack 0.60 / defence 1.09, drawn from 24/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 20% | Draw 28% | Helmond Sport 52%, with Helmond Sport to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Jong Utrecht win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 65%, Helmond Sport 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 0.96 PPG, Helmond Sport 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.