Jong Utrecht 2-1 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong Utrecht at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 12 as Jong Utrecht welcome FC OSS to Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch. Kick-off is set for Friday 22 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Utrecht have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Jong Utrecht have gone 2W 0D 3L this season (5 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
FC OSS — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS's away record: 1W 0D 4L from 5 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Jong Utrecht have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Jong Utrecht trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
FC OSS trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 54% versus FC OSS 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong Utrecht 64% | FC OSS 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.26 xG and FC OSS 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.807 / defence 1.065 | FC OSS attack 0.574 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.347. FC OSS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Jong Utrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Jong Utrecht games / 11 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 47% | Draw 29% | FC OSS 24%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | FC OSS 4.17. Jong Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 40% | FC OSS 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Friday 22 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 47% | Draw 29% | FC OSS 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.26 / FC OSS 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.807 / def 1.065 | FC OSS attack 0.574 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
0.82
FC OSS xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 October 2021 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Jong Utrecht 2 - 1 FC OSS.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS part of?
Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 47% chance of winning, FC OSS a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Jong Utrecht and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and FC OSS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong Utrecht and FC OSS in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. FC OSS (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jong Utrecht's attack at 0.81x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
47%
2.14
29%
3.44
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.09
0.82
FC OSS xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
21%
4.88
7%
14.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 10.2 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.9 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 0.82 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong Utrecht's recent record stands at 4W 3D 4L from 11 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC OSS, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 7L across 11 games — 0.91 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jong Utrecht by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC OSS heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jong Utrecht have managed 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC OSS's away record stands at 1W 0D 4L across 5 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.18 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 11 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 3W 1D 7L in their last 11 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or FC OSS away?
Jong Utrecht's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.20 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2022, when FC OSS won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong Utrecht
3
Draws
5
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 2, FC OSS have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when FC OSS 3-1 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and FC OSS?
FC OSS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Jong Utrecht 40% BTTS, FC OSS 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Jong Utrecht) and 40% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 40% of games; FC OSS in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 20% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 40% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Utrecht and FC OSS tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jong Utrecht edge out FC OSS 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht beat FC OSS 2-1 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.26 xG and FC OSS 0.82 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.81 / defence 1.06 against FC OSS attack 0.57 / defence 1.23, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 47% | Draw 29% | FC OSS 24%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 64%, FC OSS 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
FC OSS's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.