Jong Utrecht 0-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Utrecht host Dordrecht at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 16 January 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong Utrecht — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Jong Utrecht have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Dordrecht have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Jong Utrecht) versus 1.10 (Dordrecht). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Jong Utrecht have won 0, Dordrecht 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with Dordrecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jong Utrecht trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Dordrecht trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 51% versus Dordrecht 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 58% | Dordrecht 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.37 xG and Dordrecht 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.694 / defence 0.978 | Dordrecht attack 0.887 / defence 1.267. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.345. Jong Utrecht's attack strength of 0.694 is below the league average — the 1.37 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Dordrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.267 — this is suppressing Jong Utrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Jong Utrecht games / 57 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 41% | Draw 27% | Dordrecht 32%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Dordrecht 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Jong Utrecht 20% | Dordrecht 70%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Monday 16 Jan 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 41% | Draw 27% | Dordrecht 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.37 / Dordrecht 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.694 / def 0.978 | Dordrecht attack 0.887 / def 1.267 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Dordrecht xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 16 January 2023 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht?
Jong Utrecht 0 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 41% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht?
Record (3 meetings): Jong Utrecht 0W | Draws 1 | Dordrecht 2W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jong Utrecht's attack at 0.69x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
41%
2.42
27%
3.75
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.53
1.17
Dordrecht xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
8%
12.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.17 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong Utrecht come into this having played 57 games, going 15W 8D 34L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.02 PPG from 57 outings (15W 13D 29L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Utrecht on 0.93 PPG, Dordrecht on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jong Utrecht's home form reads 7W 2D 19L across 28 games on their own ground, a 0.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 0.75 points per game from 28 outings (5W 6D 17L).
The Goals Picture
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.33 scored and 1.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht in 65%.
Last 57 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 15W 8D 34L in their last 57 games (0.93 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 15W 13D 29L in their last 57 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Dordrecht away?
Jong Utrecht's home record (0.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 0.82 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jong Utrecht go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jan 2022, when Dordrecht won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong Utrecht
3
Draws
4
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 3, Dordrecht have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Jong Utrecht 3-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 29%, Dordrecht 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Jong Utrecht) and 75% (Dordrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 57% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Dordrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 71% of Dordrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Jong Utrecht's matches and 75% of Dordrecht's.
Do Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dordrecht defy the odds to beat Jong Utrecht 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Jong Utrecht 0-1 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.37 xG and Dordrecht 1.17 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Jong Utrecht fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.69 / defence 0.98 against Dordrecht attack 0.89 / defence 1.27, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 41% | Draw 27% | Dordrecht 32%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Dordrecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 58%, Dordrecht 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dordrecht's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 0.93 PPG, Dordrecht 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.