Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Utrecht host Den Bosch at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 3 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong Utrecht — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong Utrecht have posted 4W 1D 5L at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Den Bosch have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Den Bosch away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jong Utrecht 1.00 PPG, Den Bosch 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jong Utrecht register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Den Bosch in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Den Bosch, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for Jong Utrecht.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Den Bosch have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Jong Utrecht in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Utrecht 66% and Den Bosch 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong Utrecht 66% | Den Bosch 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 2.11 xG and Den Bosch 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.969 / defence 1.311 | Den Bosch attack 0.916 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.997 / away 1.525. Data: 47 Jong Utrecht games / 45 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 45% | Draw 21% | Den Bosch 34%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.22 | Draw 4.76 | Den Bosch 2.94. Jong Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.94. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.94 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.11 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong Utrecht are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.94 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 60% | Den Bosch 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Monday 3 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 45% | Draw 21% | Den Bosch 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 74% | xG Jong Utrecht 2.11 / Den Bosch 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.969 / def 1.311 | Den Bosch attack 0.916 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.997 / away 1.525 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Den Bosch xG
74%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Monday 3 May 2027 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 45% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 34% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch?
Record (10 meetings): Jong Utrecht 2W | Draws 3 | Den Bosch 5W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jong Utrecht's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.11. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.9%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
45%
2.22
21%
4.83
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.94
1.83
Den Bosch xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.36
26%
BTTS No
3.82
Clean Sheet
16%
6.24
12%
8.24
Win to Nil
7%
13.86
4%
24.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.83 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Jong Utrecht have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 14W 11D 22L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch's form line: 16W 10D 21L from 47 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Utrecht on 1.13 PPG, Den Bosch on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jong Utrecht have posted 1.39 PPG from 23 outings (9W 5D 9L).
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 6W 3D 14L from 23 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.68 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Utrecht have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Den Bosch in 77%.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
Den Bosch
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 14W 11D 22L in their last 47 games (1.13 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 16W 10D 21L in their last 47 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Den Bosch away?
Jong Utrecht's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.39 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Jan 2023, when Jong Utrecht won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong Utrecht
3
Draws
5
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 2, Den Bosch have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when Den Bosch 1-1 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong Utrecht at 70%, Den Bosch at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Jong Utrecht and 78% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 61% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Jong Utrecht's games and 74% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Jong Utrecht's matches and 78% of Den Bosch's.
Do Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.