Jong PSV U21 3-2 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong PSV U21 vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PSV Campus De Herdgang plays host to Jong PSV U21 versus Willem II in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Monday 30 January 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jong PSV U21 have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21 at PSV Campus De Herdgang this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Willem II's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Jong PSV U21, 1.50 for Willem II — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Jong PSV U21 0W, Willem II 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Jong PSV U21 half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Willem II half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong PSV U21 65% versus Willem II 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 63% | Willem II 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.37 xG and Willem II 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.998 / defence 1.127 | Willem II attack 1.025 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.309. Data: 59 Jong PSV U21 games / 20 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 35% | Draw 25% | Willem II 41%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Willem II 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Willem II as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Jong PSV U21 40% | Willem II 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 30 Jan 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 35% | Draw 25% | Willem II 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.37 / Willem II 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.998 / def 1.127 | Willem II attack 1.025 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Willem II (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Willem II xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Willem II kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 30 January 2023 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Willem II?
Jong PSV U21 3 - 2 Willem II.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Willem II part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 35% chance of winning, Willem II a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Willem II?
Record (1 meetings): Jong PSV U21 0W | Draws 1 | Willem II 0W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Willem II in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Willem II (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Jong PSV U21's attack at 1.00x the league average against Willem II's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (1.02x) against Jong PSV U21's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 59/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
35%
2.90
25%
4.04
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
2.88
1.51
Willem II xG
2.90
35%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
8%
13.14
10%
9.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.51 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong PSV U21 come into this having played 54 games, going 15W 16D 23L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Willem II sit at 1.17 PPG from 54 outings (17W 12D 25L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Jong PSV U21 against 1.17 for Willem II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Jong PSV U21's home form reads 9W 7D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Willem II have taken 0.81 points per game from 26 outings (5W 6D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong PSV U21 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.11 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Willem II in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 15W 16D 23L in their last 54 games (1.13 PPG), while Willem II have gone 17W 12D 25L in their last 54 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Willem II away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.31 PPG; Willem II away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won 3-0 on 27 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong PSV U21 have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Jong PSV U21
2
Draws
2
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 2, Willem II have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Willem II 1-0 Jong PSV U21.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 54%, Willem II 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Jong PSV U21 and 62% for Willem II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong PSV U21 have failed to score in 27% of games; Willem II in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Jong PSV U21's games and 58% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 62% of Willem II's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Willem II tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Willem II in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong PSV U21 defy the odds to beat Willem II 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat Willem II 3-2 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.37 xG and Willem II 1.51 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.00 / defence 1.13 against Willem II attack 1.02 / defence 0.88, drawn from 59/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 35% | Draw 25% | Willem II 41%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Jong PSV U21 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 63%, Willem II 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.13 PPG, Willem II 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.