Jong PSV U21 3-3 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong PSV U21 vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong PSV U21 host Roda at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 18 March 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong PSV U21 — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Jong PSV U21 at Jan Louwers Stadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Roda away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Roda — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Jong PSV U21, 0 for Roda and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Roda in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong PSV U21 59% versus Roda 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 62% | Roda 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.46 xG and Roda 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.089 / defence 1.157 | Roda attack 1.026 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.463. Data: 29 Jong PSV U21 games / 30 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 32% | Draw 24% | Roda 44%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | Roda 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Roda at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 50% | Roda 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 18 Mar 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 32% | Draw 24% | Roda 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.46 / Roda 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.089 / def 1.157 | Roda attack 1.026 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: Roda (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Roda xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Roda kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 18 March 2022 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Roda?
Jong PSV U21 3 - 3 Roda.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Roda part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Roda is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 32% chance of winning, Roda a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Roda?
Record (1 meetings): Jong PSV U21 0W | Draws 1 | Roda 0W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Roda in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Roda (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (1.09) and Roda's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
32%
3.10
24%
4.20
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.20
1.74
Roda xG
3.10
32%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
18%
5.69
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
6%
17.63
10%
9.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.4 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.74 for Roda, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong PSV U21 come into this having played 29 games, going 10W 5D 14L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.69 PPG from 29 outings (13W 10D 6L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Roda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Jong PSV U21 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Jong PSV U21's home form reads 7W 2D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Jong PSV U21 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.64 points per game from 14 outings (6W 5D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.97 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Current Season
Roda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Roda in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 10W 5D 14L in their last 29 games (1.21 PPG), while Roda have gone 13W 10D 6L in their last 29 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Roda away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.64 PPG; Roda away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Jong PSV U21 or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong PSV U21 have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Roda in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2023, when Jong PSV U21 won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting Roda specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong PSV U21
3
Draws
5
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 2, Roda have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Roda 0-2 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 57%, Roda 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Jong PSV U21 and 64% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Jong PSV U21's games and 71% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 64% of Roda's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Roda tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Roda in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong PSV U21 and Roda share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 and Roda finished level at 3-3 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.46 xG and Roda 1.74 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Roda outscored their 1.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.09 / defence 1.16 against Roda attack 1.03 / defence 1.06, drawn from 29/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 32% | Draw 24% | Roda 44%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 62%, Roda 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Roda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.