Jong PSV U21 1-2 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 50%, yet in-form NAC Breda provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NAC Breda make the trip to PSV Campus De Herdgang to face Jong PSV U21 in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Monday 6 March 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Jong PSV U21 (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong PSV U21 have posted 4W 2D 4L at PSV Campus De Herdgang — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
NAC Breda have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
NAC Breda arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Jong PSV U21 register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, NAC Breda in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Jong PSV U21, 2 for NAC Breda and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Jan 2023, ended 1–2 with NAC Breda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Jong PSV U21 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 67% and NAC Breda 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 62% | NAC Breda 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 2.42 xG and NAC Breda 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.066 / defence 1.342 | NAC Breda attack 1.139 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.781 / away 1.222. NAC Breda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.272 — this is suppressing Jong PSV U21's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Jong PSV U21 games / 64 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 50% | Draw 19% | NAC Breda 30%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.00 | Draw 5.26 | NAC Breda 3.33. Jong PSV U21 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (19%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.28. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.28 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (2.42 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong PSV U21 are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form NAC Breda (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 80% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 77% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 70% | NAC Breda 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 6 Mar 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 50% | Draw 19% | NAC Breda 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 77% | xG Jong PSV U21 2.42 / NAC Breda 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.066 / def 1.342 | NAC Breda attack 1.139 / def 1.272 | league avg home 1.781 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.87
NAC Breda xG
77%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 6 March 2023 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda?
Jong PSV U21 1 - 2 NAC Breda.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 50% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 30% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda?
Record (3 meetings): Jong PSV U21 0W | Draws 1 | NAC Breda 2W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. NAC Breda (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (1.07) and NAC Breda's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 2.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (1.14x) against Jong PSV U21's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.87.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.0%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
50%
1.98
19%
5.17
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
1 – 1
6.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
4.28
1.87
NAC Breda xG
1.98
50%
Home win
5.17
19%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
43%
Over 4.5
2.33
57%
Under 4.5
1.75
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.30
23%
BTTS No
4.35
Clean Sheet
15%
6.47
9%
11.20
Win to Nil
8%
12.81
3%
37.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.5%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.87 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 4.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 64 outings, Jong PSV U21 have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 19W 19D 26L record — W-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda's form line: 27W 13D 24L from 64 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Jong PSV U21 against 1.47 for NAC Breda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Jong PSV U21 have posted 1.38 PPG from 32 outings (12W 8D 12L).
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 10W 5D 17L from 32 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.55 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 19W 19D 26L in their last 64 games (1.19 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 27W 13D 24L in their last 64 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or NAC Breda away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.38 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: NAC Breda have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 0-5 on 4 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong PSV U21 have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Jong PSV U21
1
Draws
5
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 0, NAC Breda have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when NAC Breda 2-0 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 59%, NAC Breda 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Jong PSV U21 and 72% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Jong PSV U21's games and 62% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 72% of NAC Breda's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as NAC Breda defy the odds to beat Jong PSV U21 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Jong PSV U21 1-2 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 2.42 xG and NAC Breda 1.87 xG, a combined 4.28. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.07 / defence 1.34 against NAC Breda attack 1.14 / defence 1.27, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 50% | Draw 19% | NAC Breda 30%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual NAC Breda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 62%, NAC Breda 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.19 PPG, NAC Breda 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. NAC Breda (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.