Jong PSV U21 3-3 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong PSV U21 host Jong AZ at PSV Campus De Herdgang in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 27 February 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong PSV U21 — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Jong PSV U21 have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong PSV U21 at 1.40 PPG versus Jong AZ's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Jong PSV U21 have won 2, Jong AZ 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2022, ended 3–2 with Jong PSV U21 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong PSV U21 67% versus Jong AZ 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 62% | Jong AZ 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 2.07 xG and Jong AZ 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.015 / defence 1.236 | Jong AZ attack 1.013 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.221. Data: 63 Jong PSV U21 games / 63 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 50% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 29%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.00 | Draw 4.76 | Jong AZ 3.45. Jong PSV U21 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong PSV U21 are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.60 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 60% | Jong AZ 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 27 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 50% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 68% | xG Jong PSV U21 2.07 / Jong AZ 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.015 / def 1.236 | Jong AZ attack 1.013 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Jong AZ xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 27 February 2023 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ?
Jong PSV U21 3 - 3 Jong AZ.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 50% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 29% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ?
Record (3 meetings): Jong PSV U21 2W | Draws 0 | Jong AZ 1W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jong PSV U21's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Jong AZ's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.07. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
50%
1.99
21%
4.72
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.60
1.53
Jong AZ xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.17
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
13%
7.92
Win to Nil
11%
9.19
4%
27.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.53 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong PSV U21's recent record stands at 19W 18D 26L from 63 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ, meanwhile, have gone 23W 11D 29L across 63 games — 1.27 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong PSV U21 on 1.19 PPG, Jong AZ on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jong PSV U21 have managed 12W 7D 12L from 31 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong AZ's away record stands at 9W 4D 18L across 31 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.30 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 19W 18D 26L in their last 63 games (1.19 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 23W 11D 29L in their last 63 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Jong AZ away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.39 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Jong PSV U21 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Mar 2024, when Jong AZ won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jong PSV U21
2
Draws
3
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 5, Jong AZ have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Jong AZ 0-2 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ?
Jong PSV U21 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 58%, Jong AZ 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Jong PSV U21 and 55% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong PSV U21 have failed to score in 26% of games; Jong AZ in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Jong AZ?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Jong PSV U21's recent matches and 45% of Jong AZ's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 55% of Jong AZ's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ finished level at 3-3 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 2.07 xG and Jong AZ 1.53 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong AZ outscored their 1.53 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.01 / defence 1.24 against Jong AZ attack 1.01 / defence 1.18, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 50% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 29%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 62%, Jong AZ 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.19 PPG, Jong AZ 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.