Jong PSV U21 1-2 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong PSV U21 vs ADO Den Haag fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong PSV U21 host ADO Den Haag at PSV Campus De Herdgang in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 13 February 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong PSV U21 have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21 at PSV Campus De Herdgang this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
ADO Den Haag — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, ADO Den Haag have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong PSV U21 at 1.30 PPG versus ADO Den Haag's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Jong PSV U21 have won 1, ADO Den Haag 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2022, ended 3–1 with Jong PSV U21 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Jong PSV U21 in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
ADO Den Haag in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 66% and ADO Den Haag 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 62% | ADO Den Haag 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.48 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.018 / defence 1.166 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.825 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.726 / away 1.233. Data: 61 Jong PSV U21 games / 61 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 44% | Draw 26% | ADO Den Haag 30%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | ADO Den Haag 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 50% | ADO Den Haag 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 13 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 44% | Draw 26% | ADO Den Haag 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.48 / ADO Den Haag 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.018 / def 1.166 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.825 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.726 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.19
ADO Den Haag xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 13 February 2023 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs ADO Den Haag?
Jong PSV U21 1 - 2 ADO Den Haag.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs ADO Den Haag part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 44% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and ADO Den Haag?
Record (3 meetings): Jong PSV U21 1W | Draws 1 | ADO Den Haag 1W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and ADO Den Haag in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jong PSV U21's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against ADO Den Haag's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, ADO Den Haag's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
44%
2.27
26%
3.90
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
2.67
1.19
ADO Den Haag xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
13%
7.44
7%
14.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.19 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong PSV U21 come into this having played 61 games, going 19W 17D 25L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, ADO Den Haag sit at 1.72 PPG from 61 outings (30W 15D 16L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ADO Den Haag carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Jong PSV U21 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Jong PSV U21's home form reads 12W 7D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, ADO Den Haag have taken 1.60 points per game from 30 outings (14W 6D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 1.67 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
ADO Den Haag
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 19W 17D 25L in their last 61 games (1.21 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 30W 15D 16L in their last 61 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or ADO Den Haag away?
ADO Den Haag's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.43 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 19 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2025, when ADO Den Haag won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting ADO Den Haag specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong PSV U21
2
Draws
5
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and ADO Den Haag?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, ADO Den Haag have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 19 December 2025, when ADO Den Haag 1-2 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and ADO Den Haag?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 57%, ADO Den Haag 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Jong PSV U21 and 57% for ADO Den Haag. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong PSV U21 have failed to score in 27% of games; ADO Den Haag in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play ADO Den Haag?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Jong PSV U21's games and 53% of ADO Den Haag's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 57% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as ADO Den Haag defy the odds to beat Jong PSV U21 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat Jong PSV U21 1-2 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.48 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.19 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. ADO Den Haag outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.02 / defence 1.17 against ADO Den Haag attack 0.82 / defence 0.84, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 44% | Draw 26% | ADO Den Haag 30%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual ADO Den Haag win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 62%, ADO Den Haag 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.