Jong AZ 2-2 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Willem II travel to AFAS Trainingscomplex to take on Jong AZ. The game is scheduled for Monday 6 March 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ at AFAS Trainingscomplex this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Willem II stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jong AZ 1.50 PPG, Willem II 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Jong AZ, 1 for Willem II and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with Willem II winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Willem II in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 50% versus Willem II 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 50% | Willem II 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.61 xG and Willem II 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.065 / defence 1.113 | Willem II attack 1.037 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.781 / away 1.222. Data: 64 Jong AZ games / 26 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 42% | Draw 24% | Willem II 34%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Willem II 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 70% | Willem II 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 6 Mar 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 42% | Draw 24% | Willem II 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Jong AZ 1.61 / Willem II 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.065 / def 1.113 | Willem II attack 1.037 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.781 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Willem II xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Willem II kick off?
Jong AZ vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 6 March 2023 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Willem II?
Jong AZ 2 - 2 Willem II.
Where is Jong AZ vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Willem II part of?
Jong AZ vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 42% chance of winning, Willem II a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Jong AZ and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Willem II?
Record (1 meetings): Jong AZ 0W | Draws 0 | Willem II 1W.
What form are Jong AZ and Willem II in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Willem II (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jong AZ's attack rating (1.06) and Willem II's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
42%
2.37
24%
4.15
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.02
1.41
Willem II xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
10%
9.69
7%
14.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.41 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong AZ's recent record stands at 19W 12D 29L from 60 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 21W 13D 26L across 60 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.15 PPG, Willem II on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jong AZ have managed 12W 7D 11L from 30 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Willem II's away record stands at 6W 8D 16L across 30 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Willem II's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong AZ are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.23 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Willem II in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 19W 12D 29L in their last 60 games (1.15 PPG), while Willem II have gone 21W 13D 26L in their last 60 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Willem II away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.43 PPG; Willem II away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong AZ and Willem II runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2025, when Jong AZ won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Jong AZ
1
Draws
4
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 1, Willem II have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Willem II 3-0 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 53%, Willem II 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Jong AZ) and 60% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 33% of games; Willem II in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Jong AZ's games and 57% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Jong AZ's recent games and 60% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong AZ and Willem II tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Willem II in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong AZ and Willem II share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 27, as Jong AZ and Willem II drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.61 xG and Willem II 1.41 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.06 / defence 1.11 against Willem II attack 1.04 / defence 0.85, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 42% | Draw 24% | Willem II 34%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 50%, Willem II 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.15 PPG, Willem II 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.