Jong AZ 2-0 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VVV Venlo at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VVV Venlo make the trip to AFAS Trainingscomplex to face Jong AZ in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Friday 21 January 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Jong AZ (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong AZ have posted 3W 3D 4L at AFAS Trainingscomplex — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Jong AZ are significantly better at AFAS Trainingscomplex than their overall form suggests.
VVV Venlo have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VVV Venlo's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, VVV Venlo are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Jong AZ lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Jong AZ winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Jong AZ goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
VVV Venlo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 43% versus VVV Venlo 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 38% | VVV Venlo 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 0.98 xG and VVV Venlo 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.776 / defence 1.053 | VVV Venlo attack 0.715 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.503. Jong AZ's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 Jong AZ games / 22 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 30% | Draw 32% | VVV Venlo 38%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | VVV Venlo 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, VVV Venlo are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VVV Venlo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 40% | VVV Venlo 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Friday 21 Jan 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 30% | Draw 32% | VVV Venlo 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Jong AZ 0.98 / VVV Venlo 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.776 / def 1.053 | VVV Venlo attack 0.715 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: VVV Venlo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.13
VVV Venlo xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo kick off?
Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 January 2022 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo?
Jong AZ 2 - 0 VVV Venlo.
Where is Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo part of?
Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 30% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making VVV Venlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Jong AZ and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and VVV Venlo?
Record (1 meetings): Jong AZ 1W | Draws 0 | VVV Venlo 0W.
What form are Jong AZ and VVV Venlo in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. VVV Venlo (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jong AZ's attack rating (0.78) and VVV Venlo's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VVV Venlo's attack (0.71x) against Jong AZ's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 21/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VVV Venlo Win
30%
3.31
32%
3.15
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
2.11
1.13
VVV Venlo xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
10%
10.25
14%
7.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 13.7 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.13 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong AZ come into this having played 21 games, going 6W 4D 11L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VVV Venlo sit at 1.19 PPG from 21 outings (8W 1D 12L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Jong AZ against 1.19 for VVV Venlo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Jong AZ's home form reads 3W 3D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, VVV Venlo have taken 1.00 points per game from 10 outings (3W 1D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong AZ are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.14 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
VVV Venlo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 6W 4D 11L in their last 21 games (1.05 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 8W 1D 12L in their last 21 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or VVV Venlo away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.20 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong AZ won 3-0 on 3 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong AZ have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VVV Venlo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Jong AZ
1
Draws
1
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and VVV Venlo?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 8, VVV Venlo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when VVV Venlo 1-3 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and VVV Venlo?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong AZ see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 40%, VVV Venlo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Jong AZ) and 60% (VVV Venlo).
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 50% of games; VVV Venlo in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play VVV Venlo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 50% of VVV Venlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Jong AZ's recent games and 60% of VVV Venlo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong AZ and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong AZ cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over VVV Venlo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat VVV Venlo 2-0 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 0.98 xG and VVV Venlo 1.13 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Jong AZ beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VVV Venlo landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.78 / defence 1.05 against VVV Venlo attack 0.71 / defence 1.10, drawn from 21/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 30% | Draw 32% | VVV Venlo 38%, with VVV Venlo to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Jong AZ win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 38%, VVV Venlo 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.05 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.